Frank H. Koch

Research Ecologist

P.O. Box 12254
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2254

Phone: 919-549-4006
Fax: 919-549-4047
frank.h.koch@usda.gov

Research
Education
and Experience
Publications
and Products

Current Research

Primary research focus on quantitative and spatial analysis of forest health data, with a particular emphasis on invasive forest pests and the modeling of invasion risk at multiple spatial scales, from landscape to continental
Characterization and representation of uncertainty in forest pest risk maps, using both probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches
Application of trade and transportation networks to estimate human-mediated invasion likelihoods for locations of interest
Optimal survey design and pest detection strategies
Analysis of short- and long-term drought patterns, including how these patterns may relate to forest pest outbreak risk

Education

Ph.D. in Forestry, 2005: North Carolina State University
M.S. in Natural Resources, 2001: North Carolina State University
B.A. in Art Design / Philosophy, 1993: Duke University

Featured Publications and Products

Duehl, Adrian J.; Koch, Frank H.; Hain, Fred P. 2011. Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Smith, William D. 2010. Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D. 2010. Representing human-mediated pathways in forest pest risk mapping.
Potter, Kevin M.; Hargrove, William W.; Koch, Frank H. 2010. Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species.
Venette, Robert C.; Kriticos, Darren J.; Magarey, Roger D.; Koch, Frank H.; Baker, Richard H. A.; Worner, Susan P.; Raboteaux, Nadila N. Gomez; McKenney, Daniel W.; Dobesberger, Erhard J.; Yemshanov, Denys; De Barro, Paul J.; Hutchinson, William D.; Fowler, Glenn; Kalaris, Tom M.; Pedlar, John. 2010. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement.

Publications

Asaro, Christopher ; Koch, Frank; Potter, Kevin. 2023. Denser forests across the USA experience more damage from insects and pathogens.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John. 2022. Drought and moisture surplus patterns in the conterminous United States: 2020, 2018–2020, and 2016–2020.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; MacQuarrie, Chris J.K.; Simpson, Mackenzie ; Koch, Frank H.; Ryan, Kathleen ; Bullas-Appleton, Erin . 2022. Hierarchical governance in invasive species survey campaigns.
Hudgins, Emma J.; Koch, Frank H.; Ambrose, Mark J.; Leung, Brian . 2022. Hotspots of pest‐induced US urban tree death, 2020–2050.
McKelvey, Steven C.; Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Hawley, Kelly R. 2021. A Bayesian model identifying locations at risk from human‐transported exotic pathogens.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Rempel, Robert S.; Koch, Frank H.; Rodgers, Art . 2021. Balancing Large-Scale Wildlife Protection and Forest Management Goals with a Game-Theoretic Approach.
Potter, Kevin M.; Paschke, Jeanine L.; Koch, Frank H.; Berryman, Erin M. 2021. Chapter 2 - Broad-scale patterns of insect and disease activity across the 50 United States from the National Insect and Disease Survey, 2019.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W. 2021. Chapter 4 - Spatial patterns of drought and moisture surplus in the conterminous United States: 2019, and between 2017 to 2019, and 2015 to 2019.
Koch, Frank H. 2021. Considerations regarding species distribution models for forest insects.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Liu, Ning ; Thompson, Daniel K.; Parisien, Marc-André ; Barber, Quinn E.; Koch, Frank H.; Reimer, Jonathan . 2021. Detecting critical nodes in forest landscape networks to reduce wildfire spread.
Venette, Robert C.; Gordon, Doria R.; Juzwik, Jennifer ; Koch, Frank H.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Peterson, Robert K. D.; Sing, Sharlene E.; Yemshanov, Denys . 2021. Early Intervention Strategies for Invasive Species Management: Connections Between Risk Assessment, Prevention Efforts, Eradication, and Other Rapid Responses.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Rempel, Rob ; Koch, Frank H.; Rodgers, Art . 2021. Exploring the tradeoffs among forest planning, roads and wildlife corridors: a new approach.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Simpson, Mackenzie ; Koch, Frank H.; Parisien, Marc‐André ; Barber, Quinn E.; Campioni, Fabio ; Macdermid, Fin ; Choudhury, Salimur . 2021. Optimal restoration of wildlife habitat in landscapes fragmented by resource extraction: a network flow modeling approach.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Rempel, Rob ; Liu, Ning ; Koch, Frank H. 2021. Protecting wildlife habitat in managed forest landscapes—How can network connectivity models help?.
Takeuchi, Yu ; Koch, Frank ; Nelson, Stacy C. 2021. Recent Immigrant Insect Fauna—Another Look at a Classic Analysis.
Adams, Damian C.; Susaeta, Andres ; Soto, Jose R.; Rossi, Frederick ; de Grammont, Paloma Carton; Messina, William A.; Koch, Frank H.; Gomez, Demian ; Hulcr, Jiri . 2020. A bioeconomic model for estimating potential economic damages from a hypothetical Asian beetle introduced via future trade with Cuba.
Coyle, David ; Barnes, Brittany ; Klepzig, Kier ; Koch, Frank ; Morris, Lawrence ; Nowak, John ; Otrosina, William ; Smith, William ; Gandhi, Kamal K. 2020. Abiotic and biotic factors affecting loblolly pine health in the southeastern United States.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Parisien, Marc-André ; Barber, Quinn ; Koch, Frank H.; Burton, Cole ; Mansuy, Nicolas ; Campioni, Fabio ; Choudhury, Salimur . 2020. Assessing the trade-offs between timber supply and wildlife protection goals in boreal landscapes.
Potter, Kevin M.; Paschke, Jeanine L.; Koch, Frank H.; Berryman, Erin M. 2020. Chapter 2 - Large-scale patterns of insect and disease activity in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii from the national Insect and Disease Survey, 2018.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W. 2020. Chapter 4 - Drought and moisture surplus patterns in the conterminous United States: 2018, 2016– 2018, and 2014–2018.
Potter, Kevin M.; Canavin, Julie C.; Koch, Frank H. 2020. Chapter 6 - A forest health retrospective: national and regional results from 20 years of Insect and Disease Survey data.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; MacQuarrie, Chris J.K.; Liu, Ning ; Venette, Robert ; Ryall, Krista . 2020. Optimal invasive species surveillance in the real world: practical advances from research.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; MacQuarrie, Chris J. K.; Koch, Frank H.; Liu, Ning ; Venette, Robert ; Ryall, Krista . 2020. Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Liu, Ning ; Chen, Cuicui ; MacQuarrie, Chris J.K.; Ryall, Krista ; Venette, Robert ; Koch, Frank H. 2019. Acceptance sampling for cost-effective surveillance of emerald ash borer in urban environments.
Holmes, Thomas ; Koch, Frank . 2019. Bark Beetle Epidemics, Life Satisfaction, and Economic Well-Being.
Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Koch, Frank H.; Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Lihou, Mary T. 2019. Cannabis legalization by states reduces illegal growing on US national forests.
Potter, Kevin M.; Paschke, Jeanine L.; Koch, Frank H.; Zweifler, Mark O. 2019. Chapter 2 - Large-scale patterns of insect and disease activity in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii from the national Insect and Disease Survey, 2017.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulton. John W., . 2019. Chapter 4 - Drought and moisture surplus patterns in the conterminous United States: 2017, 2015-2017, and 2013-2017.
Guo, Qinfeng ; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Riitters, Kurt H. 2019. Impacts of nonnative species on the health of natural and planted forests.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Chen, Cuicui ; Liu, Ning ; MacQuarrie, Christian J. K.; Koch, Frank H.; Venette, Robert ; Ryall, Krista . 2019. Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Venette, Robert C.; Swystun, Tom ; Fournier, Ronald E.; Marcotte, Mireille ; Chen, Yongguang ; Turgeon, Jean J. 2019. Optimizing surveillance strategies for early detection of invasive alien species.
Yemshanov, Denys ; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Parisien, Marc-André ; Swystun, Tom ; Barber, Quinn ; Burton, A. Cole; Choudhury, Salimur ; Liu, Ning . 2019. Prioritizing restoration of fragmented landscapes for wildlife conservation: A graph-theoretic approach.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W. 2018. Chapter 4 - Moisture deficit and surplus in the conterminous United States for three time windows: 2016, 2014-2016, and 2012-2016.
Koch, Frank H.; Ambrose, Mark J.; Yemshanov, Denys ; Wiseman, P. Eric; Cowett, F.D. . 2018. Modeling urban distributions of host trees for invasive forest insects in the eastern and central USA: A three-step approach using field inventory data.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Fournier, Ronald; Cook, Gericke; Turgeon, Jean J. 2017. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks.
Yemshanov, Denys; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Venette, Robert; Studens, Kala; Fournier, Ronald E.; Swystun, Tom; Turgeon, Jean J.; Gao, Yulin. 2017. A safety rule approach to surveillance and eradication of biological invasions.
Formby, John P.; Rodgers, John C.; Koch, Frank H.; Krishnan, Natraj; Duerr, Donald A.; Riggins, John J. 2017. Cold tolerance and invasive potential of the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus) in the eastern United States.
Hastings, John M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Megalos, Mark; Jetton, Robert M. 2017. Prioritizing conservation seed banking locations for imperiled hemlock species using multi-attribute frontier mapping.
Yemshanov, Denys; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Venette, Robert C.; Fournier, Ronald E.; Turgeon, Jean J. 2017. Robust surveillance and control of invasive species using a scenario optimization approach.
Jaime, Xavier A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Koch, Frank H.; Nelson, Stacy A. C. 2017. Spread of common native and invasive grasses and ruderal trees following anthropogenic disturbances in a tropical dry forest.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John. 2016. Chapter 4: 1-Year (2014 , 3-Year (2012–2014 ) , and 5-Year (2010–2014) Maps of Drought and Moisture Surplus for the Conterminous United States.
Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H.; Oswalt, Christopher M.; Iannone, Basil V. 2016. Data, data everywhere: detecting spatial patterns in fine-scale ecological information collected across a continent.
Norman, Steve; Koch, Frank H.; Hargrove, William W. 2016. Detecting and monitoring large-scale drought effects on forests: toward an integrated approach.
Koch, Frank H.; Prestemon, Jeff; Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Hinkley, Everett A.; Chase, John M. 2016. Predicting cannabis cultivation on national forests using a rational choice framework.
Norman, Steve; Koch, Frank H.; Hargrove, William W. 2016. Review of broad-scale drought monitoring of forests: Toward an integrated data mining approach.
Vogt, James T. (JT); Koch, Frank H. 2016. The Evolving Role of Forest Inventory and Analysis Data in Invasive Insect Research.
Koch, Frank H.; John W. Coulston., . 2015. 1-year (2013), 3-year (2011-2013), and 5-year (2009-2013) drought maps for the conterminous United States.
Coyle, David R.; Klepzig, Kier D.; Koch, Frank H.; Morris, Lawrence A.; Nowak, John T.; Oak, Steven W.; Otrosina, William J.; Smith, William D.; Gandhi, Kamal J.K. 2015. A review of southern pine decline in North America.
Potter, Kevin M.; Hargrove, William; Koch, Frank H. 2015. Assessing forest tree risk of extinction and genetic degradation from climate change.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W. 2015. Chapter 4: Drought Patterns in the Conterminous United States, 2012.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys. 2015. Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ducey, Mark. 2015. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences.
Withrow, J.R.; Smith, E.L.; Koch, F.H.; Yemshanov, D. 2015. Managing outbreaks of invasive species - a new method to prioritize preemptive quarantine efforts across large geographic regions.
Ambrose, Mark J.; Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Wiseman, P. Eric. 2015. Modeling urban host tree distributions for invasive forest insects using a two-step approach.
Yemshanov, Denys; Haight, Robert G.; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Venette, Robert; Lyons, D. Barry; Scarr, Taylor; Ryall, Krista; Leung, Brian. 2015. Optimal allocation of invasive species surveillance with the maximum expected coverage concept.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Haack, Robert A. 2015. Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision-makers’ risk aversion.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W. 2014. Chapter4 - Drought patterns in the conterminous United States and Hawaii.
Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H. 2014. Patterns of forest phylogenetic community structure across the United States and their possible forest health implications.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Lu, Bo; Lyons, D. Barry; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Scarr, Taylor; Koehler, Klaus. 2014. There is no silver bullet: the value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A.; Magarey, Roger D. 2014. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty. 2013. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.
Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen L.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H. 2013. An economic assessment of mountain pine beetle timber salvage in the west.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W. 2013. An improved method for standardized mapping of drought conditions.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark J.; Siltanen, Marty; Wilson, Kirsty; Koehler, Klaus. 2013. Exploring critical uncertainties in pathway assessments of human-assisted introductions of alien forest species in Canada.
Kriticos, Darren J.; Venette, Robert C.; Baker, Richard H.A.; Brunel, Sarah; Koch, Frank H.; Rafoss, Trond; van der Werf, Wopke; Worner, Susan P. 2013. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Koehler, Klaus. 2013. Mapping ecological risks with a portfolio-based technique: incorporating uncertainty and decision-making preferences.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark J.; Haack, Robert A.; Siltanen, Marty; Wilson, Kirsty. 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Coulston, John W. 2013. Recent drought conditions in the Conterminous United States.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A. 2013. Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Lyons, D. Barry; Ducey, Mark; Koehler, Klaus. 2012. A dominance-based approach to map risks of ecological invasions in the presence of severe uncertainty.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D. 2012. A revised sudden oak death risk map to facilitate national surveys.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Magarey, Roger D.; Smith, William D. 2012. Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis.
Koch, Frank H.; Hennon, Paul E. 2012. Drought and climate.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.; Smith, William D. 2012. High-Resolution Mapping of Drought Conditions.
Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H. 2012. Large-scale patterns of insect and disease activity in the conterminous United States and Alaska, 2006.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.; Smith, William D. 2012. Mapping drought conditions using multi-year windows.
McKelvey, Steven C.; Smith, William D.; Koch, Frank. 2012. Probabilistic commodity-flow-based focusing of monitoring activities to facilitate early detection of Phytophthora ramorum outbreaks.
Costanza, Jennifer K.; Hulcr, Jiri; Koch, Frank H.; Earnhardt, Todd; McKerrow, Alexa J.; Dunn, Rob R.; Collazo, Jaime A. 2012. Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Koehler, Klaus. 2012. Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada.
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D. 2011. Emerging forest pest threat: Redbay ambrosia beetle and laurel wilt.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Colunga-Garcia, Manuel; Magarey, Roger D.; Smith, William D. 2011. Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many? .
Magarey, R.D.; Borchert, D.M.; Engle, J.S.; Garcia-Colunga, M; Koch, Frank H.; al, et. 2011. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States.
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Smith, William. 2010. Detection capacity, information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests.
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W. 2010. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment.
Venette, Robert C.; Kriticos, Darren J.; Magarey, Roger D.; Koch, Frank H.; Baker, Richard H.A.; Worner, Susan P.; Gomez Raboteaux, Nadilia N.; McKenney, Daniel W.; Dobesberger, Erhard J.; Yemshanov, Denys; De Barro, Paul J.; Hutchison, William D.; Fowler, Glenn; Kalaris, Tom M.; Pedlar, John. 2010. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel W.; Smith, William D. 2009. Evaluating critical uncertainty thresholds in a spatial model of forest pest invasion risk.
Koch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel W.; Smith, William D. 2009. Evaluating critical uncertainty thresholds in a spatial model of forest pest invasion risk.
Koch, Frank H. 2009. Marine cargo imports and forest pest introductions.
Koch, Frank H. 2009. Relating lightning data to fire occurrence data.
Yemshanov, Denys; McKenney, Daniel; Pedlar, John; Koch, Frank; Cook, David. 2009. Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species.

Research Highlights

Examining the Role of Humans in the Spread of Invasive Species (2015): Forest Service scientists and their collaborators have contributed innovative research to the field of forest pest risk assessment by focusing on pathways for the human-assisted spread of forest pest species, including merchandise imports and firewood transport. Research results anticipate where and how often invasive alien forest insects are likely to be established. The findings can assist U.S. and Canadian decision-makers and offer guidance for border control efforts, post-border surveillance, and rapid-response measures.