North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Sharma, Shubhi; Andrus, Robert; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C.; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L.; Courbaud, Benoit; Das, Adrian J.; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Gilbert, Gregory S.; Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kilner, Christopher L.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Koenig, Walter D.; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M.; Macias, Diana; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A.; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian S.; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Redmond, Miranda D.; Reid, Chantal D.; Rodman, Kyle C.; Scher, C. Lane; Schlesinger, William H.; Steele, Michael A.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas T.; Whipple, Amy V; Whitham, Thomas G.; Wion, Andreas P.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zlotin, Roman; Clark, James S.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2116691118

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Download
(PDF; 2.0 MB)

Cite

Feedback

Authors: Sharma, Shubhi; Andrus, Robert; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C.; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L.; Courbaud, Benoit; Das, Adrian J.; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Gilbert, Gregory S.; Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kilner, Christopher L.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Koenig, Walter D.; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M.; Macias, Diana; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A.; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian S.; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Redmond, Miranda D.; Reid, Chantal D.; Rodman, Kyle C.; Scher, C. Lane; Schlesinger, William H.; Steele, Michael A.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas T.; Whipple, Amy V; Whitham, Thomas G.; Wion, Andreas P.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zlotin, Roman; Clark, James S.
Publication Year: 2022
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2116691118

Abstract

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Citation: Sharma, Shubhi; Andrus, Robert; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don C.; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie L.; Courbaud, Benoit; Das, Adrian J.; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy J.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Gilbert, Gregory S.; Greenberg, Cathryn H.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kilner, Christopher L.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Koenig, Walter D.; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene M.; Macias, Diana; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan A.; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Ian S.; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Redmond, Miranda D.; Reid, Chantal D.; Rodman, Kyle C.; Scher, C. Lane; Schlesinger, William H.; Steele, Michael A.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas T.; Whipple, Amy V.; Whitham, Thomas G.; Wion, Andreas P.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zlotin, Roman; Clark, James S. 2022. North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 119(3): e2116691118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116691118.
Keywords: climate change, forest regeneration, seed production, tree migration
Posted Date: January 6, 2022
Modified Date: March 29, 2022

Print Publications Are No Longer Available

In an ongoing effort to be fiscally responsible, the Southern Research Station (SRS) will no longer produce and distribute hard copies of our publications. Many SRS publications are available at cost via the Government Printing Office (GPO). Electronic versions of publications may be downloaded, printed, and distributed.

Publication Notes

This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
Our online publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact the SRS webmaster if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
To view this article, download the latest version of Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Publications Menu Back to Top

@article{sharma%2C+shubhi2022north,
  title={North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East},
  author={Sharma, Shubhi  and Andrus, Robert  and Bergeron, Yves  and Bogdziewicz, Michal  and Bragg, Don C. and Brockway, Dale  and Cleavitt, Natalie L. and Courbaud, Benoit  and Das, Adrian J. and Dietze, Michael  and Fahey, Timothy J. and Franklin, Jerry F. and Gilbert, Gregory S. and Greenberg, Cathryn H. and Guo, Qinfeng  and Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke  and Ibanez, Ines  and Johnstone, Jill F. and Kilner, Christopher L. and Knops, Johannes M. H. and Koenig, Walter D. and Kunstler, Georges  and LaMontagne, Jalene M. and Macias, Diana  and Moran, Emily  and Myers, Jonathan A. and Parmenter, Robert  and Pearse, Ian S. and Poulton-Kamakura, Renata  and Redmond, Miranda D. and Reid, Chantal D. and Rodman, Kyle C. and Scher, C. Lane and Schlesinger, William H. and Steele, Michael A. and Stephenson, Nathan L. and Swenson, Jennifer J. and Swift, Margaret  and Veblen, Thomas T. and Whipple, Amy V and Whitham, Thomas G. and Wion, Andreas P. and Woodall, Christopher W. and Zlotin, Roman  and Clark, James S.},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={119},
  number={3},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.2116691118},
  year={2022}
}

%0 Journal Article
%T North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East
%J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
%A Sharma, Shubhi 
%A Andrus, Robert 
%A Bergeron, Yves 
%A Bogdziewicz, Michal 
%A Bragg, Don C.
%A Brockway, Dale 
%A Cleavitt, Natalie L.
%A Courbaud, Benoit 
%A Das, Adrian J.
%A Dietze, Michael 
%A Fahey, Timothy J.
%A Franklin, Jerry F.
%A Gilbert, Gregory S.
%A Greenberg, Cathryn H.
%A Guo, Qinfeng 
%A Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke 
%A Ibanez, Ines 
%A Johnstone, Jill F.
%A Kilner, Christopher L.
%A Knops, Johannes M. H.
%A Koenig, Walter D.
%A Kunstler, Georges 
%A LaMontagne, Jalene M.
%A Macias, Diana 
%A Moran, Emily 
%A Myers, Jonathan A.
%A Parmenter, Robert 
%A Pearse, Ian S.
%A Poulton-Kamakura, Renata 
%A Redmond, Miranda D.
%A Reid, Chantal D.
%A Rodman, Kyle C.
%A Scher, C. Lane
%A Schlesinger, William H.
%A Steele, Michael A.
%A Stephenson, Nathan L.
%A Swenson, Jennifer J.
%A Swift, Margaret 
%A Veblen, Thomas T.
%A Whipple, Amy V
%A Whitham, Thomas G.
%A Wion, Andreas P.
%A Woodall, Christopher W.
%A Zlotin, Roman 
%A Clark, James S.
%V 119
%N 3
%R 10.1073/pnas.2116691118
%D 2022
%> https://www.fs.usda.gov/nrs/pubs/jrnl/2022/nrs_2022_sharma_001.pdf
%U https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/63658

TY  - JOUR
TI  - North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East
AU  - Sharma, Shubhi 
AU  - Andrus, Robert 
AU  - Bergeron, Yves 
AU  - Bogdziewicz, Michal 
AU  - Bragg, Don C.
AU  - Brockway, Dale 
AU  - Cleavitt, Natalie L.
AU  - Courbaud, Benoit 
AU  - Das, Adrian J.
AU  - Dietze, Michael 
AU  - Fahey, Timothy J.
AU  - Franklin, Jerry F.
AU  - Gilbert, Gregory S.
AU  - Greenberg, Cathryn H.
AU  - Guo, Qinfeng 
AU  - Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke 
AU  - Ibanez, Ines 
AU  - Johnstone, Jill F.
AU  - Kilner, Christopher L.
AU  - Knops, Johannes M. H.
AU  - Koenig, Walter D.
AU  - Kunstler, Georges 
AU  - LaMontagne, Jalene M.
AU  - Macias, Diana 
AU  - Moran, Emily 
AU  - Myers, Jonathan A.
AU  - Parmenter, Robert 
AU  - Pearse, Ian S.
AU  - Poulton-Kamakura, Renata 
AU  - Redmond, Miranda D.
AU  - Reid, Chantal D.
AU  - Rodman, Kyle C.
AU  - Scher, C. Lane
AU  - Schlesinger, William H.
AU  - Steele, Michael A.
AU  - Stephenson, Nathan L.
AU  - Swenson, Jennifer J.
AU  - Swift, Margaret 
AU  - Veblen, Thomas T.
AU  - Whipple, Amy V
AU  - Whitham, Thomas G.
AU  - Wion, Andreas P.
AU  - Woodall, Christopher W.
AU  - Zlotin, Roman 
AU  - Clark, James S.
PY  - 2022
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.2116691118
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
IS  - 3
VL  - 119
L1  - https://www.fs.usda.gov/nrs/pubs/jrnl/2022/nrs_2022_sharma_001.pdf
UR  - https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/63658
ER  -