Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables


We explored forecasting of county roundwood pulpwood produc-tion with county-vector autoregressive (CVAR) and spatial panelvector autoregressive (SPVAR) methods. The analysis used timberproducts output data for the state of Florida, together with a set ofmacro-economic variables. Overall, we found the SPVAR specifica-tion produced forecasts with lower error rates compared to CVARspecifications. Nonetheless, high forecast errors across countiesrevealed the uncertainty associated with projecting volumes ofcounty pulpwood production.Published by Elsevier GmbH. on behalf of Department of ForestEconomics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå.

  • Citation: Brandeis, Consuelo; Lambert, Dayton M. 2014. Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables. Journal of Forest Economics 20 (2014) 305–315 11 p.
  • Keywords: County pulpwood forecastVector autoregressiveSpatial panel VAR
  • Posted Date: April 14, 2015
  • Modified Date: April 14, 2015
  • Print Publications Are No Longer Available

    In an ongoing effort to be fiscally responsible, the Southern Research Station (SRS) will no longer produce and distribute hard copies of our publications. Many SRS publications are available at cost via the Government Printing Office (GPO). Electronic versions of publications may be downloaded, printed, and distributed.

    Publication Notes

    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
    • Our online publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact the SRS webmaster if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • To view this article, download the latest version of Adobe Acrobat Reader.