Risk assessment [Chapter 9]
What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always risky, even if their probability of occurring is low; low-magnitude impacts are not very risky, even if their probability of occurring is high. Applying this approach to forest management is challenging because both the likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of the effects may be difficult to estimate (especially at local scales) and often depend on past and current land use, and the timing, frequency, duration, and intensity of multiple chronic and acute climate-related disturbances.