Modeling the Impacts of EU Bioenergy Demand on the Forest Sector of the Southeast U.S.
Abstract
The wood-pellet trade between the U.S. (United States) and the EU (European Union) has increased substantially recently. This research analyzes the effects of EU biomass imports from the Southeast U.S. on Southeast U.S. timber prices, inventories and production and on EU imports of feedstock. The SRTS (sub-regional timber supply model) was used to simulate market responses to changes in woody biomass consumption in the U.S. and the EU between 2008 and 2038. Results indicate that the price of imported wood pellets in the EU is sensitive to future U.S. renewable energy policies, the developments of which are so far uncertain. The analysis indicates that with bioenergy demands, prices increase for U.S. softwood roundwood from 25% to 125% by 2038 depending largely on U.S. domestic policy. Demand increases led to supply responses and increased carbon storage in Southeastern U.S. over time.