A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

Download
(PDF; 833167)
Cite
Feedback
  • Authors: Woodall, Christopher W.; Domke, Grant M.; Riley, Karin L.; Oswalt, Christopher M.; Crocker, Susan J.; Yohe, Gary W.
  • Publication Year: 2013
  • Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
  • Source: PLoS ONE. 8(9): e73222.
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0073222

Abstract

Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass) and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor) with a risk framework parameterized using the US’s national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Ko¨ ppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario). Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making) using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation) among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1) robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2) projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change), and 3) appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States). Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery) suggests an operational forest C risk matrix remains elusive.

  • Citation: Woodall, Christopher W.; Domke, Grant M.; Riley, Karin L.; Oswalt, Christopher M.; Crocker, Susan J.; Yohe, Gary W. 2013. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States. PLoS ONE. 8(9): e73222. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073222
  • Posted Date: September 12, 2013
  • Modified Date: September 12, 2013

    • Print Publications Are No Longer Available

    In an ongoing effort to be fiscally responsible, the Southern Research Station (SRS) will no longer produce and distribute hard copies of our publications. Many SRS publications are available at cost via the Government Printing Office (GPO). Electronic versions of publications may be downloaded, printed, and distributed.

    Publication Notes

    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
    • To view this article, download the latest version of Adobe Acrobat Reader.