Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

Download
(PDF; 178042)
Cite
Feedback
  • Authors: Cooley, David M; Galik, Chrsitopher S; Holmes, Thomas P; Kousky, Carolyn; Cooke, Roger M
  • Publication Year: 2011
  • Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
  • Source: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11027-011-9306-x

Abstract

Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect forest offsets—fat tails, micro-correlation, and tail dependence—and provide examples of how they could present themselves in a forest offset context. Given these potential dependencies, we suggest several new risk management approaches that take into account dependencies in reversal risk across projects and which could help guard the climate integrity of an offsets program. We also argue that data collection be included as an integral part of any offsets program so that disturbance-related dependencies may be identified and managed as early and to the greatest extent possible.

  • Citation: Cooley, David M; Galik, Chrsitopher S; Holmes, Thomas P; Kousky, Carolyn ; Cooke, Roger M 2011. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9306-x.
  • Keywords: Carbon offsets, Climate policy, Forestry, Natural disturbance, Risk
  • Posted Date: September 13, 2011
  • Modified Date: September 22, 2011

    • Print Publications Are No Longer Available

    In an ongoing effort to be fiscally responsible, the Southern Research Station (SRS) will no longer produce and distribute hard copies of our publications. Many SRS publications are available at cost via the Government Printing Office (GPO). Electronic versions of publications may be downloaded, printed, and distributed.

    Publication Notes

    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
    • Our online publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact the SRS webmaster if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • To view this article, download the latest version of Adobe Acrobat Reader.