Statistical analysis of large wildfires

Abstract

Large, infrequent wildfires cause dramatic ecological and economic impacts. Consequently, they deserve special attention and analysis. The economic significance of large fires is indicated by the fact that approximately 94 percent of fire suppression costs on U.S. Forest Service land during the period 1980-2002 resulted from a mere 1.4 percent of the fires (Strategic Issues Panel on Fire Suppression Costs 2004). Further, the synchrony of large wildfires across broad geographic regions has contributed to a budgetary situation in which the cost of fighting wildfires bas exceeded the Congressional funds appropriated for suppressing them (based on a ten-year moving average) during most years since 1990. In turn, this shortfall has precipitated a disruption of management and research activities within federal land management agencies, leading to a call for improved methods for estimating fire suppression costs (GAO 2004).

Citation

Holmes, Thomas P.; Huggett, Robert J. Jr.; Westerling, Anthony L. 2008. Statistical analysis of large wildfires. The Economics of Forest Disturbances: Wildfires, Storms, and Invasive Species, 59-77