Modelling the impact of the exotic forest pest nectria on the New Zealand forest sector and its major trading partners
The possible impact of Nectria fuckeliana Booth on the forests and forest industries of New Zealand, a significant exporter of industrial roundwood, was estimated for different scenarios of the spread of the fungal pest and trade measure responses in export markets. An economic model was used to assess the direct effect of the pest and the potential impact of trade bans and phytosanitary regulations to prevent pest arrival in New Zealand’s major export markets — China, Japan, and South Korea. Depending on the assumed area affected by N. fuckeliana, the net present value of New Zealand’s forest sector gross revenue was US$34 million to US$612 million lower, due to reduced harvest and log exports, even without foreign trade measures. A possible measure, requiring the debarking of New Zealand log exports, would reduce the present value of New Zealand growers’ revenues by US$1,200 million, even if N. fuckeliana were confined to the already affected area. If China, Japan, and South Korea banned imports of New Zealand logs altogether, and the pest continued to spread at historical rates, the present value of New Zealand growers’ revenues would decrease by US $8,200 million. Estimated losses to growers could be, to varying extents, offset by increased domestic production of processed wood products, under both trade measures. The debarking and import ban policies would increase gross revenues for producers in China and South Korea, but also increase the cost to consumers of wood products.