The Southern Forest Futures Project Technical Report

Table of Contents

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For the Futures Project, the South has been divided into five large sub-regions (see figure). These divisions are roughly based on aggregations of similar ecological units and each has separate social/cultural/economic identities as well. However, individual sub-regions are not homogenous, so the sub-regional teams will strive to address the diversity of conditions and concerns within their sub-region.

The Futures Project divided the South into five large ecological sub-regions that have distinct ecological traits as well as social/cultural/economic identities (see map below). Teams are preparing reports for each sub-region that distill information from the Technical Report and discuss management implications and challenges relevant to each. These reports will be available as they are completed.

Select a Chapter:

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17

Chapter 1

Design of the Southern Forest Futures Project

David N. Wear and John G. Greis[¹]

• Introduction
• Methods
  • Soliciting Public Input on Issues
  • Evaluating Meta-Issues
  • Discerning Management Implications of Futures Project Findings
  • The Future of Southern Forests: An Ongoing Conversation
• Conclusions
• Literature Cited

Chapter 2

Constructing Alternative Futures

David N. Wear, Robert Huggett, and John G. Greis[¹]

• Introduction
• Methods
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Strategies for Analyzing Drivers of Change
  • Developing Alternative Futures: Linking Scoping Results to Forecasting Models
  • Selecting the Cornerstone Futures
  • What the Cornerstone Futures Say and How They Compare
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited

Chapter 3

Climate Change Summary

Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore Myers, Peter Caldwell, and Ge Sun[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Data Sources and Methods
• Results
  • Regional Forecasts
  • Subregional Forecasts
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited

Chapter 4

Forecasts of Land Uses

David N. Wear[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• The Cornerstone Futures
• Methods
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Urban Land Uses
  • Forest Land Uses
  • Cropland Land Uses
  • Other Land Uses
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Literature Cited
• Appendix A

Chapter 5

Forecasts of Forest Conditions

Robert Huggett, David N. Wear, Ruhong Li,
John Coulston, and Shan Liu[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• The Cornerstone Futures
• Methods
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Forest Area Forecasts
  • Forest Biomass Forecasts
  • Forest Carbon Forecasts
  • Forest Removals Forecasts
  • Forest Condition Forecasts
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Literature Cited

Chapter 6

Forest Ownership Dynamics of Southern Forests

Brett J. Butler and David N. Wear[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Methods
  • Definitions of owner types
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Family Forest Owners
  • Historical Family Ownership Dynamics
  • Historical Corporate Ownership Dynamics
  • Future Ownership Dynamics and Implications
• Discussions and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Literature Cited

Chapter 7

Outdoor Recreation in a Shifting Societal Landscape

H. Ken Cordell, Carter J. Betz, and Shela H. Mou[¹]

• Key Findings
  • Population
• Recreation Demand
• Recreation Resources
• Projected Futures
• Introduction
  • Historical Context
  • Outdoor Recreation Defined
• Methods and Data Sources
  • Population and Demographic Trends and Futures for the South
  • Recreation Activity Trends
  • Recreation Resources
  • County Pattern Maps
  • Projected Futures
• Results
  • Current Population Trends for the South
  • Population Projections for Three Levels of Change (2008 to 2060)
  • Trends in Outdoor Recreation
  • The South’s Participation in Nature-Based Activities
  • Federal Recreation Resources
  • Non-Federal Recreation Resources
  • Nearby Recreation Resources (Current)
  • Nearby Recreation Resources (Projected)
• Conclusions and Discussion
• Literature Cited

Chapter 8

Outdoor Recreation

J. M. Bowker, Ashley Askew, H. Ken Cordell, and John C. Bergstrom[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Methods and Data
• Results
  • Participants and Days of Recreation Participation
  • Visits to Southern National Forests
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgements
• Literature Cited

Chapter 9

Markets

David N. Wear, Jeffrey Prestemon, Robert Huggett, and Douglas Carter[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
  • Influences on Timber Supply
  • Influences on Timber Demand
  • Scope of Analysis
• Methods
  • Supply Scenarios
  • Demand Scenarios
  • Market Forecasts
  • Data Sources
• Results
  • Historical Timber Markets
  • Demand Trends for Pulp and Paper Products
  • Demand Trends for Solid Wood Products
  • Product Substitution and Timber Demand
  • Influences of International Trade on Demand
  • Timber Supply Trends
  • Timber Supply Forecasts
  • Market Forecasts
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited

Chapter 10

Forest Biomass-Based Energy

Janaki R. R. Alavalapati, Pankaj Lal, Andres Susaeta, Robert C. Abt, and David N. Wear[¹]

• Introduction
• Methods
  • Consumption/Demand Scenarios
  • Biomass Supply
• Results
  • Market Analysis
  • Supply Adjustment Strategies
  • Technologies
  • The Policy Environment
  • Sustainability
• Discussion and Conclusions
  • Markets
  • Technologies
  • Policies
  • Sustainability Issues
• Summary
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited
• Appendix B: Total Wood Demand for Energy Estimation
  • Estimating Demand: Wood-Based Liquid Fuels
  • Wood Pellets
  • Harvesting Residues and Urban Wood Waste
  • Allocating Merchantable Timber into Four Products

 

Chapter 11

Effect of Taxes and Financial Incentives on Family-Owned Forest Land

John L. Greene, Thomas J. Straka, and Tamara L. Cushing [¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
  • The Federal Income Tax
  • State Income Taxes
  • State Property and Harvest Taxes
  • The Federal Estate and Gift Taxes
  • State Estate, Inheritance, and Gift Taxes
  • Incentives for Conservation Easements
  • Incentives for Forest Sustainability
  • Provision of Ecosystem Services
• Methods and Data Sources
  • Family Forest Owner Awareness and Use of Federal Income Tax Provisions
  • State Property Taxes
  • Combined Impact of Federal and State Taxes
  • Effect of the Federal Estate Tax
  • Effectiveness of Financial Incentive Programs in Promoting Sustainable Practices
• Results
  • Family Forest Owner Awareness and Use of Federal Income Tax Provisions
  • State Property Taxes
  • Combined Impact of Federal and State Taxes
  • Effect of the Federal Estate Tax
  • Effectiveness of Financial Incentive Programs in Promoting Sustainable Practices
• Discussion and Conclusions
  • Nine Recommendations for Financial Incentive Programs
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited

Chapter 12

Employment and Income Trends and Projections for Forest-Based Sectors in the U.S. South

Karen L. Abt [¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Methods
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Past and Current Role of Forest-Based Sectors in the Southern Economy
  • Logging
  • Wood Products Manufacturing
  • Paper Manufacturing
  • Forest-Based Recreation
  • Bioenergy
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Literature Cited

Chapter 13

Forests and Water

Graeme Lockaby, Chelsea Nagy, James M. Vose, Chelcy R. Ford, Ge Sun, Steve McNulty, Pete Caldwell, Erika Cohen, and Jennifer Moore Myers [¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Methods
  • Literature Review and Syntheses
  • Regional Modeling
• Data Sources
  • Regional Modeling Databases
  • Sea Level Rise
• Results
  • Physical Environment of the Southern Region
  • Functions of Forested Wetlands and Riparian Forests
  • Hydrologic Effects of Forest Conversion to Other Land Uses
  • Effects of Forest Conversion on Sediment
  • Effects of Forest Conversion on Water Chemistry
  • Effects of Forest Conversion on Human Health
  • Effects of Forest Conversion on Aquatic Communities
  • Implications of Land Use Change Projections on Water Quality
  • Effects of Expanded Intensive Forest Management on Water
  • Implications of Climate Change, Land Use Change, and Population on Water Resources
  • Implications of Sea Level Change on Coastal Areas
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Literature Cited

Chapter 14

Wildlife and Forest Communities

Margaret Trani Griep and Beverly Collins[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Methods
  • Species Criteria
  • Geographic analysis
  • Biodiversity-forecast analyses
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Geographic Patterns of Vertebrate Richness
  • Geographic Patterns of Species Listed as Threatened or Endangered
  • Geographic Patterns of Other At Risk Species
  • Species Extirpation within Selected States of the South
  • Forecasts of Urban Growth, Forest Loss, and Climate Change
  • Forecasts for Selected Forest Communities
• Discussion and Conclusions
  • Patterns of Species Richness, Imperilment, and Extirpation
  • Forecasts of Urban Growth, Forest Loss, and Climate Change
  • Biodiversity and Climate Change
  • Forecasts of Special Communities
  • Management Challenges
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited

Chapter 15

The Invasion of Southern Forests by Nonnative Plants: Current and Future Occupation, with Impacts, Management Strategies, and Mitigation Approaches

James H. Miller, Dawn Lemke, and John Coulston[¹]

• Introduction
  • Existing and Collaborative Invasive Plant Efforts in the South
• Methods and Data Source
• Results
  • The South’s Most Pervasive Invasive Plants
  • Invasive Trees
  • Invasive Shrubs
  • Nonnative Vines
  • Invasive Grasses and Bamboos
  • Nonnative Forbs
  • Other Invasive Plants in the South
  • Projected Increases in Infestations
  • Geographic Distribution of Infestations
  • Model Predictions of Current and Future Potential Habitat
  • Treatments for Integrated Management of Invasive Plants
  • Herbicidal Control Methods
  • Other Treatments
  • Biological Controls
  • Rehabilitation, Restoration, and Reclamation
• Discussion and Conclusions
  • Common Traits of Invasive Plants
  • Damages Caused by Invasive Plants
  • Potential Uses of Invasive Plants
  • General Concepts for Managing Nonnative Invasive Plants
  • Organizing Across Borders
  • Small Scale Stewardship
  • A Time to Reflect, Rethink, Redouble Efforts
  • Now More Than Ever: Sanitation Is the Key
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited

Chapter 16

Invasive Pests—Insects and Diseases

Donald A. Duerr and Paul A. Mistretta[¹]

• Introduction
• Methods
• Data Sources
• Results
  • Insect Pests of Softwoods
  • Insect Pests of Hardwoods
  • Diseases of Softwoods
  • Diseases of Hardwoods
  • Additional Concerns
• Discussion and Conclusions
  • Future Considerations for Pest-Host Relationships
  • Managing Pests Under Changing Conditions
• Knowledge and Information Gaps
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited
• Appendix C

Chapter 17

Fire

John A. Stanturf and Scott L. Goodrick[¹]

• Key Findings
• Introduction
• Methods
  • Climate Scenarios
  • Measuring Wildfire Potential
• Results
  • Future Wildfire Potential Changes
  • Notable Exceptions to this Pattern are Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma
  • Future of Prescribed Fire
  • Alternatives to Prescribed Burning
  • Carbon and Climate
• Conclusions and Discussion
• Acknowledgments
• Literature Cited