Southern Forest Resource Assessment led by the USDA Forest Service's Southern Region and Southern Research Station in collaboration with the USEPA, US Fish & Wildlife, TVA, and state forestry agencies of the Southern United States

Broad Category: Timber Markets and Forest Management

Question Manager: Jeffrey P. Prestemon

Question TIMBR-1:  What are the history, status and projected future demands for and supplies of wood products in the South?

1. Evaluate supply and demand for all species groups and timber products including sawtimber, pulpwood, veneer, other fiber products, and fuelwood.
2. Examine the effects of population growth and land use change on timber supply-e.g., with more people, how is the "availability" of timber different?
3. Evaluate the linkages to international markets and consider implications of changing wood product exports and imports of competing materials.
4. Address the impacts of changing management intensity and productivity on supply and the resulting composition of forests.
5. Evaluate market linkages with other parts of the United States.
6. Address how changing technology and the emergence of new products (change in product mix) could affect all markets.

Overview:

     Southern forests reflect significant changes that U.S. society has faced in history. These changes include the changes in the demand for forest products, derived from growth in demand for final forest products, and the technologies used to produce those final products. Final product demand growth has occurred as a result of overall economic growth in the U.S. economy, changing technology in forest products manufacturing, imports and exports of forest products to and from the region, and changes in consumer preferences.  Evolving with these demand changes have been changes in the techniques and technologies used to produce timber and the land use choices of landowners. Constraining land use choices is the inherent productivity of the land, which determines whether forests can be productively managed for timber and the quality of timber finally produced. Although in the short run some timber supplied to markets can come from land conversions away from forests, the long-run level and quality mix of timber production is ultimately determined by a confluence of timber supply decisions of forest owners and timber demand. Hence, the ultimate allocation of timber into competing end uses is a function of aggregate economic output of the economy, changing preferences of consumers, supply and demand technologies, interregional trade of forest products, and the net benefits deriving from competing land uses.

     While it may be clear that timber production is a function of all of these factors, it is not well understood how these factors have changed over time or the relative contributions of each in determining production levels. From a national perspective, the share of timber production in the South has steadily grown over the past half century, and concerns surround whether this growth can or will continue, particularly the consequences of this growth on forest character and extent. Regardless of the reasons for this increasing share, a better understanding of how changing production levels of various intermediate forest products are linked to changes in forest conditions. Identification of such links, combined with alternative scenarios of how timber production determinants will change in the future, may provide the information necessary to project the ultimate, landscape-level consequences for forests of a changing Southern, national, and world economy.

Methods of analysis:

History and Status of Timber Supply and Demand: We will compile historical and the latest data available on production and prices of timber by product by species group by state (and/or, if possible, smaller spatial aggregates, such as multicounty groupings). These data will be presented in tabular format. Additionally, we will provide graphical and/or tabular data on the number of mills by mill type (hardwood sawmill, softwood sawmill, pulp mill, chip mill, veneer/plywood mill, etc.) by state (and/or smaller spatial aggregate). Data will include the most recent mill survey data from FIA and collaborating states (Pye and Prestemon 1999), and they will include mill survey data reported by FIA in previous years. An empirical analysis, possibly part of a small area assessment, could be done that relates the physical locations of mills of various types to stand age, amount of clearcutting, and the level of forest investment (e.g., in plantations) on FIA plots in a few Southern states or a multistate physiographic region. In that way, alternative future changes in the mixes of demand technologies and products can be linked to land use and forest character.

Effects of Population Growth and Land Use Change on Timber Supply: The report will refer to data already presented under Social/Economic Factors, which are time series data on population by state (and/or smaller spatial aggregates) and that detail forestland changes over time. That research presents forecasts of land use changes, including forest land changes. Using links to timber supply responsiveness that will be obtained from the existing literature, some projections will be made regarding forecasts of timber production. Alternative futures can be evaluated and reported, each of which makes alternative assumptions about rates of population and forest changes in the South. The Southeast Regional Timber Supply (SERTS) model may be employed, if possible, to make such evaluations.

Linkages of Southern Timber Production to Interregional Trade. Historical and the most recent data on forest products trade between the South and the rest of the U.S. will be presented, using data available from Forest Service Timber Product Output surveys and pulpwood surveys from Forest Inventory and Analysis. International trade data will be presented, detailing trade in forest products relevant to the South, including exports of wood chips from southern ports, exports of logs and major forest product categories from the U.S. to other countries, and imports into the U.S. of forest products that compete with Southern production.

Changing Management Intensity and Productivity and the Resulting Composition of Forests: The most recent and historical data on management intensity by broad forest ownership class by state will be reported. With these, the SERTS model will be employed to trace out the effects of changes in the existing mix of management intensities on forest composition. Results will be reported in tabular format. Some analysis will be possible, using these results, on the influence of management intensity on the long-term character of Southern forests.

Changing Technology and Product Mixes and their Effects on Timber Markets: The literature will be consulted and experts retained to evaluate how changing mixes of technologies might influence land use decisions and, ultimately, forest cover. Historical data on the mix of different production technologies used in the South.

Data Sources:

FIA TPO Reports, by State, for various years

FIA historical pulpwood production reports, and state-level reports

Tony Johnson and Carol Hydol's time series data on wood chip exports from Southern ports

FIA and USFS SRS-RWU-4851GIS mill coverage data sets

US Export Data (Commerce Department)

US Import Data (Commerce Department)

RPA Data on technology

Products:

1) Tabular presentation of timber production trends by state by year by species by product

2) Graphical and tabular data on number of mills by state by mill type, for at least two time periods for most mill types

3) Maps of mills by type in the South

4) Tables and graphs of forest area and timber production by state by major product type by year under alternative assumptions of population and economic growth

5) Tabular presentation of trade by major forest product type, including trade of the South with the rest of the United States and trade of the South (or U.S.) with the rest of the world.

6) Tabular presentation of historical and current management intensities, by broad forest ownership class and by state

7) Tabular and graphical presentation of alternative futures of management intensities, reporting the effects on mixes of forest types.

8) Discussion and potential projections on timber harvesting by product, given that a relationshipbetween changing demand technologies and forest cover can be established

Collaborators and Sources:

Forest Inventory and Analysis, Asheville, NC (Tony Johnson, et al.)

Carol Hydol (NERS)

Robert Abt and Brian Murray, SERTS modelers, NCSU and Research Triangle Institute

John Pye, RWU-SRS-4851

Ken Skog, RWU-FPL-4851

Links to other questions:

Historical data and forecasts of population and timber supply trends are linked to Social/Economic Factors (III, question 1).

Forest management intensity future scenario (products #7 and #8, above) results may be useful for Landscapes/Terrestrial Ecosystems question 4 (dealing with future impacts of forest management on terrestrial ecosystems) and Social/Economic Factors question #1 (dealing with land use changes and projections)

Unresolved Issues:

Spatial extent of a small area assessment on the effects of mills of different types on forests and forest investments.

Cited and Other Relevant Literature:

Pye, J. M., and J. P. Prestemon. 1999. An Eastwide Coverage of Mills by Type. GIS and tabular data set.

 modified: 2-MAR-2000