October 2000 Progress Report on Question SOCIO-5

SOCIO-5: October 2000 Progress Report

October 11-12, 2000, Atlanta, GA

Sub-points

Define sub-regions for economic analysis so that they correspond with fine scale economies. OK
Examine the history of change in economies and the relative contributions of different forest-based sectors. OK
What are the economic consequences of anticipated future land use and timber harvesting? OK, need input from Socio-1, Socio-6 and Timber-1
Examine the distributional consequences (spatial and income distributions) of these economic consequences. OK
Examine public (federal and state) investment in the forest sector. Limited data vailable.
Define tax revenues generated by forest and wood products operations Limited data available (IRS federal corporate taxes at national level)

Data Summary:

Sources: BLS, CBP, BEA-REIS, Census
Dates: 1977, 1985, 1993, 1997
Geographic level: County level, reported at ecoregion (modified) and Southwide
Variables: Employment, wage income, other income, total industry output by 2-digit(or smaller) SIC code (with links to NAICS).

Evaluating how changes in land use and harvesting affect the economy

To fill in the "unknown" part above, I will try to estimate an equation like this:

Predicting impacts of changes in land use and harvesting

Determine the contribution of the wood products sectors, recreation/tourism sectors (forest based will be used if data available), and National Forests to regional economy (gross regional product)
Evaluate results of changes in land use and harvesting on the local economy (changes in jobs and income)
Using an input-output model, a fixed relationship is used to determine direct and indirect impacts of a change in the economy.

Distributional impacts of the forest sector

Distribution by income level and geography will be examined by modeling income as a function of forest sector variables and by developing models for ecoregions.
Hypothesis: Rural income is lower in areas with high forest dependence (wood products and/or recreation/tourism).
Per Capita Income=f(size/health of the economy, human and physical capital, forest status, wood products jobs, rec/tourism jobs)
Environmental justice will be addressed in a paper at the November conference, and may be referenced in the assessment document

Natural resource accounting, and externalities

Externalities exist where one sector influences the consumption or production of another sector.
Primarily a discussion of types of externalities not included in other sections of the assessment.
Resource accounting involves including natural resources in our system of national accounts (gross domestic product). Goods and services not traded in the current economy cannot be added directly to the current accounts.
Development of satellite timber accounts is possible with the data provided (but not in the time allowed). Real interest appears to be in nonmarket or nonmeasured goods and services.