Southern Forest Resource Assessment led by the USDA Forest Service's Southern Region and Southern Research Station in collaboration with the USEPA, US Fish & Wildlife, TVA, and state forestry agencies of the Southern United States

Broad Category:  Social/Economic Factors

Question SOCIO-1: How have land uses changed in the South and how might changes in the future affect the area of forests?

Question Manager:  David Wear, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station.

Specific points to be addressed in answering the question:

a.  Evaluate the influence of various driving factors behind land use change including population growth, urban sprawl, and markets for various goods and services produced from land.

b.  Include population forecasts in analysis of land uses.

c.  Definitions of forestland need to be evaluated to address different capabilities of lands.  This is especially important with regard to the continuum of forest conditions between suburban areas and remote forests.

d.  Analysis should address not only the amount of forestland but also its spatial arrangement.  Most notably, examine the fragmentation of forests.

e.  Evaluate how forestry programs have influenced forests and land use (e.g., tree-planting programs).

f.  Address linkages between the answer to this question and the impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Overview:

Methods of analysis: 

Land Use Forecasts.  We will compile historic data on population growth as well as other variables that have an influence on land use decisions.   Tabular and map presentations of population growth, income change, and site quality will be used to identify areas that have and may in the future experience change in these driving variables.  In addition, we will compile data on historic land uses and map how change has occurred.

An existing land use forecasting model (Hardie et al. in press) will be used to forecast changes in land uses over the next twenty years.  This model currently uses 1992 as a base.  We will investigate re-estimating the land use model to incorporate the latest land use data.  Forecasts will be based on a scenario defined by future values of the following variables:  (1) population density, (2) personal income, (3) revenues and costs for agriculture, and (4) timber values.  (This analysis will address specific points a and b.)

Examine urban:rural condition.  We will overlay human population density with forest density to define condition along a rural-urban gradient.  This will define which counties have forests in an essentially urban condition; those in an essentially rural condition, and in-between.  (This analysis will address point c.)

Fragmentation Analysis.  Could be conducted at a couple of different levels.  One would be to use spatially explicit data on forest cover and construct standard landscape metrics that would be compared across sub-regions.  This would require satellite coverage for the region.  Is this available? 

At another level, parcel size measured for Forest Inventory plots could be used to examine forest fragmentation.  (These analyses would address point d.)

Data Sources:

Census of Population

Census of Agriculture

National Resource Inventories

FIA plot records

Timber Mart South price reports

Products:

1)  Tabular presentation of historic and projected human populations. Resolution: state.

2)  Map presentation of historic and projected human populations.  Resolution:  County.

3)  Tabular presentation of historic (1982, 1987, 1992, 1997) and projected (2020) land uses. Resolution: state. Categories:  Forest, agricultural, urban, and other. 

4)  Map presentation of historic (1982, 1987, 1992, 1997) and projected (2020) land uses.  Resolution: county. Categories:  Forest, agricultural, urban, and other.

Collaborators and Sources:

Peter Parks, Rutgers University

Ian Hardie, University of Maryland

John Pye, Southern Research Station

Links to other questions:  

Forecasts of  land use could be used in the Landscapes/Terrestrial Ecosystems broad category (questions 1, 2, and 3).  They could also be used in the analysis of timber markets (Broad Category:  Timber Markets and Forest Management, Question no. 1).

Unresolved Issues: 

Land use forecasts will be built upon future scenarios of demographic and economic conditions.  These scenarios need to be coordinated with other parts of the assessment that will conduct forecasts. 

Need to examine ability to measure fragmentation of forest cover across the South.  Also, are data available to address change between two observations? 

Does the issue regarding tree-planting programs belong in this question?  Perhaps it should be addressed under forest policy and regulations. 

Cited and Other Relevant Literature:

Parks, P.J., I.W. Hardie, C.A. Tedder, and D.N. Wear. 1999.  Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid Atlantic Region.  Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (in press).

Hardie, I., P. Parks, P. Gottlieb, and D. Wear.  2000.  Responsiveness of Rural and Urban Land Uses to Land Rent Determinants in the South.  Land Economics (forthcoming).

Wear, D.N., and P. Bolstad. 1998. Land Use Changes in Southern Appalachian Landscapes: Spatial Analysis and Forecast Evaluation.  Ecosystems 1(6):575-594

 modified: 29-FEB-2000