Timberland area within the South was relatively stable through the 20th century.
Ongoing urbanization is focused in the Piedmont and along the coasts. Forest loss is projected by recent research to be highest in the Southeast (from Virginia to Florida).
Agricultural prices are such that increased timber prices or a reduction in agricultural subsidies could lead to an expansion of pine plantations on agricultural lands.
Timber sector studies project that the South could experience changes ranging from no net loss of forest to a net loss of 31 million acres by 2040 (16 percent of forests), depending on the future price of timber.
In spite of strong growth in prices of hardwood pulpwood, there has been little investment in hardwood production, i.e., hardwood plantations.
If planting that was subsidized under the Soil Bank and CRPs is not counted, planting of pines increased at a steady rate between 1945 and 1998.
Except during the Soil Bank and CRP periods, industry has done a disproportionately high share of tree planting (45 to 70 percent of planting with only about 20 percent of timberland).
Tree planting has served as both replacement and expansionary investment. In the 1990s, levels of expansionary and replacement investment were each about 1 million acres per year.
Recent declines in planting indicate a reduction in expansionary investment since the late 1990s.
The supply effects of recent reductions in expansionary investment will not be felt for some time.
Forest products firms, which hold a disproportionately high share of the forest capital, have been selling much of their lands, about 50 percent by 2005, compared to 1999 levels.
Some industry land sales are explained by urbanization pressures, but most of the land sold is expected to remain in timber production in the near term.
The shift toward TIMO management may entail more parcelization and fragmentation of timberland ownership. The shift may also lead to a less stable supply of timber, more volatile timber prices, and a slower rate of increase in the area of pine plantations.
Divestiture of industry lands could lead to lower overall investments in timber research and development, leaving producers in the U.S. South less able to compete against foreign producers in the long run.
