SUMMARY TERRA-1 TERRA-2 TERRA-3 TERRA-4 TERRA-5 SOCIO-1 SOCIO-2 SOCIO-3 SOCIO-4 SOCIO-5 SOCIO-6 SOCIO-7 TIMBR-1 TIMBR-2 TIMBR-3 HLTH-1 HLTH-2 HLTH-3 AQUA-1 AQUA-2 AQUA-3 AQUA-4 AQUA-5 HISTORY FIRE UPDATE-1 PDF (6.2 MB)

TIMBR-1: Timber Products Supply and Demand

1 Key Findings

2 Introduction

3 Methods

4 Data Sources

5 Results

5.1 History and Current Status of Timber and Timber Product Supply and Demand

5.2 Projections of Timber and Timber Product Supply and Demand

6 Discussion and Conclusions

7 Needs for Additional Research

8 Acknowledgments

9 Literature Cited

10 Tables and Figures

Table 1--Subregional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) assumptions

Table 2--Direction of trade among major timber products trading countries

Figure 1--Schematic of the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) model

Figure 2--Total U.S. harvests, National Forest harvests, and U.S. real gross domestic product, 1950-1998

Figure 3--National Forest harvests by geographical region

Figure 4--U.S. fiber consumption, by source, 1965-1998

Figure 5--Industrial wood productivity in the U.S. 1900-1998

Figure 6--Shares of timber harvest volumes, by Region of the U.S. 1952-1997

Figure 7--Timber harvest revenues by Region of the U.S. 1952-1997

Figure 8--Tree planting in the South by major owner group, 1945-1999

Figure 9--Southern pulpwood production 1953-1998 by product class, and LA southern pine and hardwood pulpwood stumpage prices

Figure 10--Chip mills in the U.S. South

Figure 11--Other wood-using mills in the U.S.

Figure 12--Sawmills in the U.S. South

Figure 13--Southern wood residue production (1953-1999) and wood chip exports

Figure 14--Removals by destination product 1952-1996

Figure 15A--SRTS Model projections of timberland area under the Base Case

Figure 15B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of private timberland area by management type, 1995 to 2040, under the IL assumptions of inelastic timber demand and low plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 15C--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of private timberland area by management type, 1995 to 2040, under the EH assumptions of elastic timber demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 15D--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of private timberland area by management type, 1995 to 2040, under the EL assumptions of elastic timber demand and low plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 16--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections by USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis survey unit of percent change in private timberland area, 1995 to 2040, under assumptions of inelastic timber demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 17--Pine plantation area projections by scenario, and historical pine plantation area on private land in the South, 1952 to 2040.

Figure 18--Pine plantation area by State on private land in the South for 1995, 2020, and 2040, as projected by the Subregional Timber Supply Model, under the IH (base case) scenario, with inelastic demand and a high pine plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 19--Pine plantation area on private land by ecoregion, 1995, 2020, and 2040, as projected by the Subregional Timber Supply Model, under the IH (base case) scenario, with inelastic demand and a high pine plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 20--Natural forest management type (natural pine, oak-pine, upland hardwood, and bottomland hardwood) area on private timberland by Southern State for 1995, 2020, and 2040, as projected by the Subregional Timber Supply Model, under the IH (base case) scenario, with inelastic demand and a high pine plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 21A--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of softwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (base case) assumptions of inelastic timber demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 21B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of softwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the IL assumptions of inelastic timber demand and low plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 21C--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of softwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the EH assumptions of elastic timber demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 21D--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of softwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the EL assumptions of elastic timber demand and low plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 22--Percentage (A) and absolute (B) changes in annual softwood harvest levels from private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, as projected by the Subregional Timber Supply Model, by USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis survey unit, under the IH (base case) assumptions of inelastic timber demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 23A--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of hardwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (base case) scenario assumptions of inelastic demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 23B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of hardwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the IL scenario assumptions of inelastic demand and low plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 23C--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of hardwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the EH scenario assumptions of elastic demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 23D--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of hardwood timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, under the EL scenario assumptions of elastic demand and low plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 24--Percentage (A) and absolute (B) changes in annual hardwood harvest levels on private timberland in the South, 1995 to 2040, as projected by the Subregional Timber Supply Model, by USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis survey unit, under IH (base case) assumptions of inelastic demand and high plantation volume growth rates.

Figure 25A--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of total timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland, by ownership group, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (base case) assumptions of inelastic demand and high plantation volume growth rates [nonindustrial private forest (NIPF)]

Figure 25B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of total timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland, by ownership group, 1995 to 2040, under the IL assumptions of inelastic demand and low plantation volume growth rates [nonindustrial private forest (NIPF)]

Figure 25C--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of total timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland, by ownership group, 1995 to 2040, under the EH assumptions of elastic demand and high plantation volume growth rates [nonindustrial private forest (NIPF)]

Figure 25D--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of total timber growth and removals volumes on private timberland, by ownership group, 1995 to 2040, under the EL assumptions of elastic demand and low plantation volume growth rates [nonindustrial private forest (NIPF)]

Figure 26A--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of softwood age structure (volume by age class) on private timberland, Southwide, 1995, 2020, and 2040, under the IH (base case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 26B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of hardwood age structure (volume by age class) on private timberland, Southwide, 1995, 2020, and 2040, under the IH (base case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27A--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Alabama softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Arkansas softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27C--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Florida softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes, 1995 to 2040 on private timberland, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27D--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Georgia softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27E--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Kentucky softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27F--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Louisiana softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27G--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Mississippi softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27H--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of North Carolina softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27I--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Oklahoma softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27J--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of South Carolina softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27K--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Tennessee softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27L--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Texas softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 27M--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of Virginia softwood and hardwood growth and removals volumes on private timberland, 1995 to 2040, under the IH (Base Case) scenario of inelastic timber demand and high plantation growth rate increase.

Figure 28A--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of softwood timber prices, 1995 to 2039, under all scenarios.

Figure 28B--Subregional Timber Supply Model projections of hardwood timber prices, 1995 to 2039, under all scenarios.