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Subregions of Concern

We examined the spatial distribution of the various forces of change described in “Forces of Change” and the implications of change described in “Conditions of Southern Forests” to identify broad areas where changes may have substantial impacts. This was intended to identify broad subregions of concern, not to be an exhaustive review of impacts. We recognize that there are likely several smaller areas that are seriously impacted by anticipated changes.

Land markets—Forest losses are forecast to be 5 percent or more of land area in six ecological sections (chapter 6): 8 percent in the Southern Appalachian Piedmont, 7 percent in Southern Ridge and Valley, and 5 percent in the Blue Ridge Mountains, Florida Coastal Lowlands, Central Ridge and Valley, and Atlantic Coastal Flatlands.

Timber markets—Forecasts of timber management indicate that plantation growth as well as area of plantations will be most heavily concentrated in the Outer Coastal Plain, including Atlantic Coastal Flatlands, Lower Coastal Plains and Flatwoods, and Florida Coastal Lowlands (chapter 13). Loss of other (nonplanted) forest types will be highest in Florida (58 percent).

Biotic factors—Many native and nonnative organisms have wide distribution in the South. Several nonnative organisms, especially newly introduced ones, are spatially focused with many moving from the North. Gypsy Moth, oak decline, dogwood anthracnose, beech bark disease, and butternut disease are generally focused in the Blue Ridge Mountains, Cumberland Mountains, Cumberland Plateau, and Ridge and Valley ecological sections. Hemlock and balsam woolly adelgids are causing substantial mortality in the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Physical factors—The effects of most physical factors described in this report—such as ozone pollution, climate change, and fire—are widely spread across the South. The major exception is acid deposition, which has negative impacts concentrated in the Blue Ridge Mountains.

These forces of change and their potential implications for forest systems are especially focused in three areas of the South.

Southern Appalachians—This region will be influenced by a combination of human, biological, and physical factors over the next two decades. Population growth and land use changes will increase the human presence in many forests. Forest-based recreation demands are focused on the Southern Appalachians, and increased competition between recreation user groups is anticipated. A complex of forest health issues is also affecting all forest types in this region and has the potential to restructure forest ecosystems.

• The spruce-fir forest community is in decline because of the balsam woolly adelgid, an exotic insect that kills high-elevation firs, combined with acid deposition and ozone pollution. Here is the most extreme case of ecological decline in the South.

• Upland hardwood types are also subject to changes from several sources. Oak decline combined with gypsy moth infestations could soon reshape forest structure by reducing oaks in the overstory. In addition, dogwood anthracnose, butternut canker, and beech bark disease will greatly reduce the distribution of their respective host trees in much of the area. Loss of these tree species along with oaks will reduce the production of both hard and soft mast and therefore impact mast-dependent wildlife species.

• The hemlock woolly adelgid kills both the eastern and the Carolina hemlock and is currently moving down the Blue Ridge from the Shenandoah Valley. While they occupy a narrow range of sites, hemlocks influence stream microclimate in headwater reaches, so loss of this species can have disproportionate influence on the quality of water in the region. Because the Southern Appalachians are headwater areas for several developing metropolitan areas in the Piedmont, changes in water quality and water production could have important economic implications.

Piedmont—Forecasts of land use change suggest that the Piedmont, from Virginia to Georgia, will experience the greatest loss of forest area among the ecological sections in the South. Already this heavily forested region has a very low ratio of interior forest to total forest, indicating a high degree of forest fragmentation. This fragmentation is likely to continue as the populations of urban counties and interspersed rural counties continue to grow. As a result, wildlife habitats will be altered for certain key bird species including neotropical migrants. Fragmentation, combined with invasive exotic plants and an increased human presence, will tend to alter the ecological values of forests in this region. Because populations will grow and forest area will decline, we also expect an increasing scarcity of forest-based recreational opportunities for city dwellers.

Lower Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains—Coastal flatwoods areas are also forecast to lose large shares of forest to urban development. Forest loss combined with intensified forest management could have cumulative negative effects on coastal wetlands through direct wetland loss and modification of hydrological regimes. The flatwoods are one of two areas with the highest concentration of endangered animal and plant species in the South. They contain many imperiled amphibians, crustaceans, and reptiles.

Florida Panhandle—This area of coastal flatwoods has especially high concentrations of critically imperiled species and forces of change. In the Panhandle, we anticipate a rapid increase in population and development spreading from central Florida. Intensive forest management and agricultural uses already dominate the rural landscape. This area is a hot spot for imperiled species, especially aquatic species. High rates of species endemism, especially among amphibians, suggest that wetlands and other wet habitats in this area have very high ecological value and that local actions could have far-reaching implications for species persistence.