Search this site:

Linkages Between Forest Dependency and Social, Economic, and Demographic Indicators

Correlations between the degree of industrial concentration in forest related sectors and social, economic, and demographic indicators are shown in table 12.2. The results indicate that job dependency in the pulp and paper sector was correlated with declining levels of median household income, increasing rates of unemployment, increasing rates of poverty, and decreasing rates of high school graduation. [These results are consistent with urban-rural relationships found across the entire South (911 counties). Statistically significant correlation coefficients (at the 0.01 level or higher) were found between population density and median household income (0.41), unemployment (-0.17), poverty rate (-0.26), and educational attainment (0.43). Thus, the degree to which the pulp and paper sector, or other forest products sectors, influenced prevalent economic conditions cannot be easily determined.] Overall, these indicators suggest that this industry was concentrated in areas with limited economic opportunities. However, areas of concentrated employment in this sector were positively correlated with the proportion of residences that were owner-occupied (providing a means of accumulating wealth) and the proportion of the population that voted in presidential elections, and a negative correlation was found with the crime rate. [These results are also consistent with the urban-rural gradient across the South. Statistically significant correlation coefficients (at the 0.01 level or higher) were found between population density and owner-occupied housing (-0.39) and crime rate (0.38). The degree to which the pulp and paper sector, or other forest products sectors, influenced prevalent social conditions cannot be easily determined.] However, the degree of industrial concentration in this sector was negatively associated with the rate of population growth. [Across the South (911 counties), a positive correlation (0.17) was found between population density and the rate of population growth (significant at the 0.0001 level.] This indicator suggests that areas of concentrated employment in the pulp and paper sector were not attracting in-migration to the degree found in areas with lower concentration of employment in this sector.

The results in table 12.2 indicate that variation in economic and social conditions across the degree of job dependency in the primary wood products sector was similar in many respects to the cross-sectional variation in economic and social conditions across the degree of job dependency in the pulp and paper sector. The degree of job dependency in the primary wood products sector was correlated with a decreasing level of median household income, an increase in the poverty rate, an increase in the rate of unemployment, and a decrease in the high school graduation rate. Increasing job dependency in this sector was positively correlated with the proportion of residences that were owner-occupied and the proportion of the population that voted in presidential elections, and a negative correlation was found with the crime rate. Although the divorce rate was found to be relatively lower in areas of concentrated employment in this sector, infant mortality rates were found to be relatively greater. Similar to the result for the pulp and paper industry, we found that the degree of industrial concentration in this sector was negatively associated with the rate of population growth.

The results in table 12.2 indicate that the variation in economic conditions across the degree of job dependency in the secondary wood products sector were similar to relationships found for the pulp and paper and primary wood products sectors. Although increasing job dependency in the secondary wood products sector was negatively correlated with median household income and the proportion of the population that had not completed high school, significant correlations with unemployment rates and the proportion of the population living in poverty were not found. A relatively high proportion of owner-occupied housing was correlated with higher concentrations of employment in this sector, and crime rates and the rate of divorce were negatively correlated with concentration in this industry. However, similar to the other wood products sectors, we found that the degree of industrial concentration in this sector was negatively associated with the rate of population growth.

The results in table 12.2 indicate that job dependency in the forest related recreation and tourism sector was positively correlated with more favorable economic indicators (despite the fact that population density was lower in counties where this sector was located than for the other forestry sectors). An increase in the degree of concentration in the forest related recreation and tourism sector was correlated with increases in median household income and with declining rates of unemployment and poverty. Although crime rates were higher and the proportion of owner-occupied homes was lower in areas where this sector was concentrated, the rate of population growth was found to increase with increasing concentration in this sector. Recall that the results shown in table 12.1 indicated that this sector was concentrated in upland hardwood forest areas that were generally older and under less intense harvesting pressure. Thus, our results are consistent with the conclusions of other studies that found rural population growth was highest for areas with high levels of natural amenities and concentrations of the recreation and tourism industry. In addition, our results suggest that forest related recreation and tourism communities are on a different development path and face different challenges than the wood fiber-based forestry sectors.