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2 Introduction

This Chapter describes historic, current, and projected timber inventories and timber product outputs from southern forests. It also attempts to place these quantities in national and international perspectives. Timber is the most valuable commercial commodity taken from most forests, and its removal strongly influences the character of those forests. Timber is removed to convert land to other uses, and it is removed in regular harvests activities of managed forests. These two processes do not occur randomly on the landscape. Rather, they occur in patterns that are predictable, related to the locations of development, timber processing capacities, and the species in demand for timber products. Because removals are a function of societal demands, the products made from timber, and the technologies used to remove and process timber, the nature of forests and projected future of those forests can be traced out by relating economic and demographic trends to the timber products sector. The economic and demographic relationships to the timber sector can be identified through a description of historical patterns of timber production and technologies. Hence, such a description provides substantial information for predicting the future of southern forests.

In describing the history and projected future of southern forests and their associated timber markets, technical terminology is often used. For clarity, it is worth defining some frequently used terms. Demand is the schedule of quantities that would be purchased by consumers over a range of prices. Supply is the schedule of quantities that would be produced in a geographic region by product manufacturers over a range of prices. Production is defined as the amount that is actually produced in a geographic region, and consumption is how much is actually purchased by consumers in a geographic region. If a country or a state consumes more than it produces of a given product, then it is a net importer of that product. If it produces more than it consumes, then it is a net exporter. The incentive for a country or state to produce a different quantity from what it consumes arises out of the ability of buyers and sellers to move products back and forth across national borders and state lines profitably.

To address questions of historical and future supplies and demands for timber products, six steps were taken:

· Historical production levels were described for the South's major species groups and timber products, including pulpwood, sawtimber, residues, fuelwood, and other fiber products. Southern production was sometimes contrasted with similar production occurring elsewhere in the country.




· The linkages to international markets were evaluated, and implications of changing wood products exports and imports of competing materials were considered.




· Market linkages with other parts of the United States were evaluated.




· Projections of future timberland areas by major forest types, timber inventories, timber growth, timber removals (production), and timber prices were made under a base scenario of supply and demand assumptions and under three alternative scenarios. Projections for the South were put into additional context with the rest of the nation and the world by reporting some findings of the 2000 Draft Resources Planning Act Assessment (Haynes and others 2001).




· Possible effects of land-use change on timber supplies were evaluated.




· The impacts of changes in intensity of forest management and in forest productivity on timber supply and forest composition were described.

Data and space limitations constrained the extent and detail of information to provide. The Chapter does not describe every issue of historical, current, or potential future importance for the South's forests. Further, a lack of data on historical production and consumption patterns limited opportunities to describe and draw conclusions about some important trends and relationships. The primary sources of data for the Chapter are given, however, for those who wish to pursue certain issues in detail. Similarly, the methods of analysis are outlined rather than explained in detail. Details are to be found in the cited literature. Finally, those interested in broader, national projections and details about other regions of the United States, are directed to the 2000 RPA Assessment (Haynes and others 2001).

As in the rest of this Assessment, this chapter does not evaluate policies or make policy recommendations. Those interested in conducting these kinds of analyses, however, may find the material presented here to be useful starting points.