Changes in Abundance and Spatial Pattern of Forest Communities Between 1950 and 2030

Scott M. Pearson (Presenter), Mars Hill College

Monica G. Turner, University of Wisconsin

Paul Bolstad, University of Minnesota

The abundance and spatial pattern of forest community types can affect ecosystem function and the persistence of populations of native species.  A recent paper by Wear and Bolstad (Ecosystems 1:575-594) projected forest cover change to 2030 using econometric models for four study areas in NC and VA.  We combined maps of forest cover for four time periods (1950, 1970, 1990, and projections for 2030) for the same study areas with maps of potential forest types to measure changes in the abundance and spatial pattern of forest community types: northern hardwoods, cove hardwoods, mixed hardwoods, and oak-pine.  The maps of potential forest types were derived from spatially explicit topographic information (e.g., elevation, land form, aspect).  Forests increased all four study areas between 1950 and 1990.  The abundance of cove hardwoods, mixed hardwoods, and oak-pine showed the greatest amount of change.  Increases in forest cover were accompanied by reduced fragmentation of habitats, as measured by increases in forest patch size and decreases in the number of patches.   The density of buildings within the forest also increased during the study period.  The most dramatic increases were observed in the Cane Creek watershed, which is near Asheville, NC.  Grayson County, VA, the most rural study area, showed the least amount of change in building density.  While increases in forest cover will provide additional habitat for native species, increases in building density within forests may offset these gains for some species.

Workshop IV: Terrestrial Ecosystems

Sustaining
Southern
Forests

a conference sponsored by the Southern Forest Resource Assessment