Land Use and Characteristics of Southern Forests, 2000-2020, under varying assumptions on population and income growth

Robert C. Abt (Presenter), North Carolina State University

David N. Wear, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service

Brian Murray

Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service

The Subregional Timber Supply Model and a county-level econometric land use model are run simultaneously to predict the area of forest, prices, timber production, and other forest characteristics under alternative scenarios of future income and population growth in the U.S. South. The SRTS model requires assumptions on future trends in forest management intensities in addition to predictions of income and population. Results are reported at a sub-state level on each predicted variable and provide an opportunity to anticipate areas of most rapid land use change in and out of forest and areas of most rapid growth in forest plantation area.  Assumptions on future income and population growth are altered independently to depict the marginal effect of each variable on predicted variables. The results of these models can form the foundation of prediction of changing land use and timber demand on factors that depend on land use allocation and intensities of forest management activity.

Workshop III: Forest Uses

Sustaining
Southern
Forests

a conference sponsored by the Southern Forest Resource Assessment