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Title: Estimating economic gains for landowners due to time-dependent changes in biotechnology
Author(s): Wagner, John E.; Holmes, Thomas P.
Date: 1998
Source: Forest Science. 45(2): 163-170.
Description: This paper presents a model for examining the economic value of biotechnological research given time-dependent changes in biotechnology. Previous papers examined this issue assuming a time-neutral change in biotechnology. However, when analyzing the genetic improvements of increasing a tree's resistance to a pathogen, this assumption is untenable. The authors derive analytical expressions for the optimal rotation age given non-constant changes in biotechnology. Their model is then implemented using (1) growth and yield simulations; (2) optimal rotation calculations; and (3) survey data on genetic resistance of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) to fusiform rust. Non-parametric regression models are used to estimate the economic gain functions which, for the cases considered, averaged about 1 percent of forestland value per year.
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