Title:	Modeling Gypsy Moth-Related Tree Mortality Under Different Outbreak Scenarios in Interior Highlands Forests
Author(s):	Gottschalk, Kurt W.; Guldin, James M.; Colbert, Jimmie J.
Date:	2004
Source:	Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-73. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. pp. 259
Description:	A simulation was conducted to determine how growth of forests in the Interior Highlands would change under attack by the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.). Simulations were conducted for three different outbreak intensities using the Gypsy Moth Stand-Damage Model. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) inventory data were used as input for the simulation. An ecological approach was taken for the simulation runs by stratifying the FIA data by ecological subsection, to better understand how outbreak effects might differ by subsection. Results show significantly greater percentage losses in stem density in the southern part of the Interior Highlands under both the moderate and heavy outbreak scenarios. The percent decline in basal area is nearly doubled in all susceptibility classes between the moderate and heavy defoliation scenarios. This is the first detailed examination of the damage that will inevitably occur when, at some unforeseen point within the next 100 years, gypsy moth becomes established in the Interior Highlands.
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