A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-trail Demand

Carter J. Betz; John C. Bergstrom; J. Michael Bowker

doi:10.1080/713676704

A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-trail Demand

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Carter J. Betz, John C. Bergstrom, J. Michael Bowker

Year:

2003

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Southern Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1080/713676704

Source:

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 46(l), 79-96, 2003

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Abstract

The authors develop a contingent trip model to estimate the recreation demand for and value of a potential rail-trail site in north-east Georgia. The contingent trip model is an alternative to travel cost modelling useful for ex ante evaluation of proposed recreation resources or management alternatives. The authors estimate the empirical demand for trips using a negative binomial regression specification. Their findings indicate a per-trip consumer surplus ranging from US$l8.46 to US$29.23 and a price elasticity of - 0.68. In aggregate, they estimate that the rail-trail would receive approximately 416 213 recreation visits per year by area households and account for a total consumer surplus in excess of US$7.5 million.

Citation

Betz, Carter J.; Bergstrom, John C.; Bowker, J. Michael. 2003. A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-trail Demand. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 46(l), 79-96, 2003