Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) records from 1968 to I986 provided the frequency of various infection rates and site qualities among young plantations before substantial effects of improved resistance. These site quality and infection levels formed the inputs to stand-level yield models that simulated the disease’s effects on mortality and product degrade as stands mature. Yields at successive ages were merchandised to three products and valued to permit identification of optimal rotation age. We extrapolated stand-level yields to regional levels using the FIA frequency data plus historical and projected planting rates, The value of these regional yields indicated plantation values in the absence of improved resistance and formed our baseline scenario.

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