Question

How will forest products markets change in response to changing social and environmental conditions?

Issues

• Forecast harvest of timber of various qualities
• Forecast change in response to various multiple attribute scenarios (anticipated futures)

Subregional Issues

• Lack of wood processing industry and harvesting infrastructure in sub-region (MAV)
• Establishment of infrastructure to support transportation and processing of raw materials for new markets (MAV)
• Interaction of bioenergy markets and high quality hardwood markets and management (App-Cumb)
• Mulch industry (hurricane protection versus short term economics) (Coastal Plain)
• Impacts of pine straw management and harvesting (Coastal Plain)
• Effect of changing markets, including losses of traditional markets and gains in new markets. (Piedmont)
• Effect of changing markets and mill capacity on social conditions in rural counties (Mid South)
• Agroforestry opportunities that might supplement income on forested properties (Mid South)

Manager

David N. Wear, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service

Methods of Analysis

Forest products markets will be simulated using a set of nested models within the US Forest Assessment System. The South is one region in the US Forest Products Model (USFPM) which is nested within the Global Forest Products Market Model (GFPM). Analysis for the 2010 RPA Assessment will provide market forecasts for final products and timber products based on three scenarios (based on downscaled IPCC international scenarios). We will also evaluate fine scale changes in markets within the South, using demand functions for southern timber products and supplies derived from our forest dynamics model.
The GFPM simulates market clearing activities in multiple, linked forest product and timber markets using an optimization approach. As currently defined GFPM simulates markets for all countries in the world for fourteen classes of products. In addition, the GFPM simulates forest area and forest stock.
To address markets in the United States for RPA analysis requires more detail than provided for in the GFPM. In particular, it is important to examine separately the markets for hardwood and softwood sawnwood as well as the derived demands for hardwood and softwood pulpwood. The important interplay between public and private forests in the West and mainly private forests in the east suggests the need for regional market definitions. Separate regional US wood products markets in the GFPM framework allow simulations of policy and exogenous change that are relevant for RPA and SFFP needs.
Scenarios will evaluate the effects of changes in product markets, including biomass feedstocks for bioenergy production. In addition, we will use literature reviews to examine specific issues regarding production infrastructure and mulch and pine straw markets.

Data and Information Sources

FIA/TPO reporting defines the basis for modeling domestic timber market activities. FAO data are the basis for global products modeling. Timber price data will be derived from Timber Mart South reports.

Products

For each scenario we will provide projections of timber production quantities and timber prices for four product categories: Softwood and hardwood sawtimber and non-sawtimber (pulpwood and other small diameter products) across the region. Our forest dynamics model will provide estimates of where in the South harvests would be concentrated under each scenario. Harvest intensity maps will be provided.

Potential cooperators

Peter Ince (USFS Forest Products Laboratory), and Joseph Buongiorno (University of Wisconsin), and Jeff Prestemon (USFS Southern Research Station).