Question

Describe recent and anticipated changes in forest ownership in the South and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystem conditions, management and productivity.

Issues

• Describe how much and where forest land has changed ownership in recent years and where changes will likely be concentrated in the future.
• Describe the economic determinants for ownership change (all ownership categories) and how they might change in the future.
• Describe how forest land use and forest uses are likely to change as a result of shifts in ownership.
• Evaluate how forest management practices are influenced by ownership change and describe the ramifications of those influences.
• Describe how changing forest ownership is likely to affect the forest products industry.

Subregional Issues

• Increase in public/ federal lands (MAV)
• Increase in absentee ownership (MAV)
• Public access to private lands change (App-Cumb)
• Focus of REIT/TIMO changes on coastal plain management (Coastal Plain/Mid South )
• Changes in land ownership, particularly increasingly smaller parcels (Piedmont)
• Impacts of transgenerational transfer and changes in permanence of residency on forest management by the NIPF sector (Mid South)
• Changes in timberland use resulting from the transfer of industry ownership to REITs/TIMOs, and effects on social conditions (Mid South)

Meta-Issue Managers

David N. Wear, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service and Brett J. Butler, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service

Methods of Analysis

Describe how much and where forest land has changed ownership in recent years and where changes will likely be concentrated in the future.
Through a contract with Lansworth Industries, we will use their land ownership data base and GIS to generate estimates of total acres of private ownership classified into the following categories: Forest Industry, TIMO, REIT and Other. We will evaluate totals and changes by subregion and state cross boundaries for the years 1998, 2003, and 2008. These estimates will be compared with other sources from the University of Georgia and FIA and with detailed analysis being conducted by Butler and Zhang (Auburn). Use results from National Woodland Owner Survey to characterize changes within the NIPF ownership class. Where feasible, assign ownership variables, such as TIMO/REIT classifications and parcel size, to the FIA database. This will allow for basic assessment of the current conditions, including mapping, and incorporation of these data into the forecasting model.

Describe the economic determinants for ownership change (all ownership categories) and how they might change in the future.
We will base our discussion of the determinants of landownership change on a paper currently in revision by Wear and Clutter (in process) and will update a literature review to examine these causative factors. It will be especially important to examine the potential implications of future economic scenarios on these causative factors. This will cover the full range of ownership transitions. Based on the "new" FIA data, we will be able to create ownership transition matrices and conduct analyses on these data. Ideally, we would be able to take a land-use modeling approach to ownership change, but time constraints may not allow this.

Describe how forest land use and forest uses are likely to change as a result of shifts in ownership.
We will use simulations from land use models to examine how changing economic conditions may affect the transition of land from forest to other uses and how different structures of landownership may affect the rates of transitions. In addition, we will synthesize existing literature on this topic.

Evaluate how forest management practices are influenced by ownership change and describe the ramifications of those influences.
We will complete a meta-analysis of recent and ongoing research on structural dissimilarities of management by different types of forest ownership. This would be informed by forest owners surveys as well as empirical comparisons using FIA data.

Describe how changing forest ownership is likely to affect the forest products industry.
We will use the US Forest Assessment System to simulate the effects of potential changes in timber supply on the region's timber markets—i.e., on production and prices of various products (fed in from previous elements of the study). Time permitting; we can conduct a "social availability" analysis that is analogous to the one being conducted by Butler and Ma in the north. Need to also consider the impact of these shifts on research and fire fighting resources.

Address the changing characteristics of family forest owners.
Following a synthesis of existing literature, data from the National Woodland Owner Survey will be used to assess trends in the characteristics of family forest owners. Characteristics examined will include, but not be limited to, parcellation and its impact on resource availability, absentee ownership, public access to private lands, and intergenerational transfer of lands. The impact of these changes on future resource conditions will be difficult to test in a rigorous manner. Where feasible, we will tie ownership characteristics to plot characteristics and project them through time using the US Forest Assessment System. Otherwise, we rely on existing literature and expert interpretation to describe the potential consequences.

Data and Information Sources

• Landsworth landownership data base
• University of Georgia Forest Business Center (forest land transition data base)
• FIA—ownership data (longer run)
• National Woodland Owner Surveys
• Previous studies

Links to other parts of the Southern Forest Futures Project

The project will use economic forecasts from the Forecasting and Analysis team to examine possible future changes in forest landownership. We will also coordinate our analysis with the Taxes meta issue, given the role of taxation on ownership.

Products

In addition to a narrative final report, we will produce: 1) maps of forest ownership across the region for 1998, 2003, and 2008, 2) maps identifying areas where ownership change has been focused between 1998 and 2008, and 3) tables of changes by state and sub-region within each state.

Potential cooperators

• Mike Clutter, University of Georgia.
• Daowei Zhang, Auburn University
• Zhao Ma, Family Forest Research Center