Question

What would be the likely effects of the emergence of a mature bioenergy market on southern forests, forest owners, and traditional forest product markets?

Issues

• Describe the current and potential technologies that are needed to realize large scale production of biofuels from woody biomass, including preferred feedstock (if known).
• What might be the likely forest management regimes followed to maximize the production of woody biomass.
• Evaluate how these regimes would likely affect forest ecosystem integrity e.g. habitat quality, biodiversity, soil productivity.
• Describe how the emergence of a bioenergy market will likely affect competition with traditional forest product markets and financial returns to landowners.
• Describe the effects subsidies or other incentives could have on landowner behavior and wood product markets.

Subregional Issues

• Development of wood biomass markets(MAV)
• Effect of focusing bioenergy harvests on gentle topography in mtns (App-Cumb)
• Lack of infrastructure to support transportation and processing of raw materials (MAV)
• Opportunities to develop biofuel markets in areas that have only supported limited timber markets—eg, brushy grasslands of Texas and Oklahoma, and hardwood stands on poor sites in the Ozarks (Mid South)

Meta-Issue Manager

Janaki Alavalapati, Virginia Tech,

Methods of Analysis

We will survey and investigate the current biochemical and thermochemical technologies utilized to produce biofuels. In addition we will contact biofuel manufacturing industry to incorporate their views about their preferred feedstock and most promising conversion technologies for the future.

We will simulate different scenarios to examine the most likely forest management regimes by performing an ecological, economic, and social analysis. For example, we will consider certain silvicultural activities such as thinnings, and prunings only for bioenergy purposes. Further, wood waste and a fraction of the final harvest might also be considered for biofuel production.

We will base our discussion in previous studies that have quantified the effect of different forest managements on the forest ecosystem integrity. In addition we will incorporate these potential impacts into our decision making analysis to select the most likely forest management.

A profit function will be developed for sawmill, pulp industry and bioenergy sectors. We then use it to assess the dynamic effects of expanding bioenergy sector on other forest product sectors. We specify the model such that all three sectors will compete for available forest biomass. In addition, we also conduct a general equilibrium analysis to assess the effect of bioenergy sector on other forest products sectors.

We will use existing survey findings to describe the effects subsidies or other incentives on landowner behavior and wood product markets.

Data and Information Sources

• Previous studies
• IMPLAN database
• Timber-mart South prices
• Growth and yield data for major plantation species
• FIA—ownership data (longer run)

Links to other parts of the Southern Forest Futures Project

The project will use future changes in forest landownership to assess biomass supply.

Products

In addition to a narrative final report, we will produce: 1) tables of biomass supply and landowner profitability under different bioenergy market scenarios; and 2) regional economic and welfare impacts of bioenergy markets; and 3) tables/maps of wildlife habitat impacts of bioenergy markets.

Potential cooperators

Dr. Jianbang Gan, Texas A&M University; Dr. Robert Fletcher, University of Florida; and Dr. Gregory Amacher, Virginia Tech.