Question

How might changes in forest environmental and social conditions affect terrestrial wildlife (birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians), their habitats, and forest vegetation communities in the South?

Issues

• How would anticipated fragmentation and population growth, urbanization,and related infrastructure affect wildlife habitats within the region?
• How might anticipated futures affect wildlife diversity in the region and where would changes likely be concentrated?
• What are the implications of anticipated futures for imperiled, rare, threatened and endangered wildlife and plant species?
• How will rare forest communities be affected by anticipated futures?

Subregional Issues

• Effects of anticipated futures on Ivory-billed woodpecker, Louisiana black bear, and other rare species. (MAV)
• Effects of anticipated futures on wildlife and plants from potential degradation/loss in high elevation forests. (App-Cumb). Section content is dependent on modeled predictions received from Forecast Team.
• Effects of potential changes in early successional communities; includes effects on neotropical migrants and other species relying on these habitats. (App-Cumb). Section content dependent on modeled predictions received from Forecast Team.
• Effects of anticipated futures on interior forest species of upland hardwood forests. (App-Cumb). Section content is dependent on modeled predictions received from Forecast Team.
• Effects of anticipated futures on the capability to manage TES. Discussion will include urban/wildland interface, and other factors affecting habitat management approaches. (Piedmont)
• Effects of anticipated futures on bird migration corridors (e.g., neotropical migrants, waterfowl, and others). (MAV)
• Effects of nutria on regeneration and reestablishment of cypress forests. (Coastal Plain)
• Effects of anticipated futures on forest-grassland ecosystems (Mid South, Coastal Plain, App-Cumb).

Meta-Issue Managers

Margaret Trani Griep, Southern Region, USDA Forest Service
Beverly Collins, Western Carolina University

Methods of Analysis

1. How would anticipated fragmentation and population growth, urbanization and related infrastructure affect wildlife habitats within the region?

• Synthesize the published literature relevant to wildlife and fragmentation, land use change (including wildland/urban interface), urbanization, and infrastructure.
• Describe consequences of fragmentation including loss of interior forest, increases in edge, habitat isolation, and reduced patch size of natural-occurring wildlife habitat.
• Identify potential causes of fragmentation (development, road networks, other), and how wildlife is influenced both positively and negatively by the resulting landscape pattern.
• Identify how habitat and selected species are affected by roads, highways, and selected other infrastructure (disruption of movement corridors, migration routes, bisecting critical habitat, alteration and degradation of habitat).
• Identify and describe the effects of anticipated futures on bird migration corridors.

2. How might anticipated futures affect wildlife diversity in the region and where would changes likely be concentrated?

• Identify and describe areas of unique species richness and list representative species occurring in these areas. Discuss anticipated effects of future forecasts (both positive and negative) on these areas.
• Identify effects on selected game, pest, and urban wildlife species.

3. What are the implications of anticipated futures for imperiled, rare, threatened and endangered forest plants and wildlife species in the region?

• Identify and describe hotspots of occurrence for critically imperiled, imperiled, and vulnerable (G1-G3) and federally listed terrestrial vertebrates and forest plant species. Analyses will be separated for these taxa.
• Discuss the effects of anticipated futures on the ivory-billed woodpecker, Louisiana black bear, and other species of conservation concern.
• Create tables and graphics of regional G1-G3 bird, mammal, reptile, and amphibian species.
• Discuss effects of anticipated futures on selected species and their habitats within these groups.
• Describe vulnerability and threat factors for selected wildlife and forest plant species.
• Discuss the effects of anticipated futures on the capability to manage imperiled species.
• Describe management challenges for selected wildlife and plant species. Discussion will include factors affecting specific approaches.

4. How might rare forest and other communities respond to anticipated futures (including potential climate conditions)?

• Identify rare forest communities and discuss factors affecting them, and the species that depend on them, in the context of anticipated futures. Include early seral communities, high elevation forests, and grassland-forest communities; consider longleaf-wiregrass, pine-bluestem, and oak woodland. Section content is dependent on modeled predictions received from Forecast Team.
• Synthesize the published literature relevant to the potential influence of climate change on selected plant communities and related wildlife. Focus on vulnerable communities in the subregions; discuss how changing climate (e.g., extended drought, precipitation events) may influence plant associations and why these communities may be more affected than others.

Data and Information Sources

• Regional habitat relationships literature for the four taxa.
• Forecast tables and maps from SFFF research team.
• NatureServe spatial and tabular data.
• Fish and Wildlife Service federally listed species status and related data.
• Partners in Flight, Bird Conservation Region, and Joint Ventures species priority lists and habitats of concern.
• Published literature.
• Potential RPA hotspot analysis data.

Links to other parts of the Southern Forest Futures

The analysis will use the forest condition, land use, and population forecast data supplied by the team to project changes in wildlife species composition and habitat in the South. The analysis will also coordinate with the Forest Landownership, Fire, Invasive Species, and Climate Change Meta issue teams.

Products

In addition to the narrative final report, the following products will be developed:

• Regional and state terrestrial forest plant and wildlife tables with conservation status ranks and habitat associations.
• Graphic: Proportion of southern terrestrial vertebrate species at risk.
• Graphic: No. of terrestrial vertebrate species at risk by major taxa.
• Maps and related tables of areas supporting unique species richness (separate products by taxa) potentially defined by population occurrence or frequency counts by county.
• Maps and related tables of hot spots of species rarity depicting the distribution of G1-G3 species (separate products by taxa) potentially defined by population occurrence or frequency counts.
• Maps and related table depicting the distribution of federally listed threatened and endangered species (separate products by taxa) potentially defined by population occurrence or frequency counts by county.
• Maps of selected rare or at-risk plant communities by subregion.
• Graphic: Proportion of plant species at risk in selected habitats (at-risk communities and focal habitats (upland and lowland hardwoods, natural and planted pine).

Potential cooperators

• NatureServe
• American Bird Conservancy
• Coordinators from SE Partners in Flight, Bird Conservation Regions, and Joint Ventures.
• U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
• State herpetologists
• So. Center for Wildland/Urban Interface Research and Information
• SE Partners in Reptile and Amphibian Conservation
• Gap Analysis