A Discrete Choice Analysis of Forest Service Planning Decisions
Investigators:
Thomas Holmes,
Southern Research Station
Doug MacNair, Triangle Economics Research
Description:
The goal of this research is to empirically evaluate the extent to which U.S. Forest Service planning decisions embody economic efficiency criteria and to test competing models of bureaucratic behavior. The primary data sources used in the analysis are the environmental impact statements prepared by fifty seven National Forests. Agency preferences for the preferred plan relative to competing plans provides the data for a multinomial logit random utility model (RUM) of choice. The results indicate that loss aversion and reference dependence are the primary characteristics of Forest Service planning decisions and models based on economic criteria perform poorly. Losses relative to the current endowment loom larger than potential gains and preference functions are kinked for timber, recreation, jobs and costs. Conflicting values, the complexity of arraying feasible alternatives and uncertainty regarding current and future demands results in the use of simplifying decision-making strategies by the agency rather than full neo-classical optimization.
Problem Area(s):
Regional analyses,
Influence of change,
Market-level models,
Public programs
Status:
Completed
Products:
MacNair, Douglas. 1996. A discrete choice analysis of Forest Service decision making and the value of forest ecosystems. North Carolina State University; Ph.D. Dissertation. 148 p.
MacNair, Doug. 1994. The role of nonmarket values in forest level decision making in region 8. SCFER Work. Pap. 75. Research Triangle Park, NC: Southeastern Center for Forest Economics Research. 25 p.
MacNair, Doug; Holmes, Tom; Hoag, Dana. 1994. A Monte Carlo analysis of the value of information in Forest Service decision making using discrete choice. In: Wear, David N.; Talmon, Judy, eds. policy and forestry: design, evaluation, and spillovers; Proceedings of the 1993 Southern Forest Economics Workshop; 1993 April 21-23; Durham, NC. Durham, NC: Duke University, School of the Environment: 248-254.
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modified:
13-MAR-2000
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USDA FS SRS
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