Spatial Modeling of Southern Pine Beetle Spot Growth
Investigators:
John M. Pye,
Southern Research Station
Description:
Currently available models of the growth of southern pine beetle (SPB) spots are either spatially naive or too complex for regional generalization. By spatially applying spot growth rates from an aspatial spot growth model in a spatially-explicit fashion, interactions between landscape structure and SPB spot growth can be explored. Because the stochastic, aspatial model is driven by readily available regional data on host condition and susceptibility, model results are explicitly linked to statistically-compatible location and ownership measurements and incorporate key sources of variability. Simulating SPB impacts under several scenarios of landowner response to infestation permitted evaluation of the impact of different intensities of suppression on landscape structure. Spatial analysis is performed outside the model through output of generic raster landscapes. Spatial metrics illustrated using Idrisi include change in amount of pine edge and frequency with which spots spill over into adjoining stands. Although the model may be run on empirically-obtained landscapes, this study instead used a separate module which generates replicate artificial landscapes reflecting actual stand size by age distributions but varying in cover amount and complexity.
Problem Area(s):
Decision support systems
Status:
completed
Products:
Pye, John M. 1993. A spot-growth model for southern pine beetle. In: Liebhold, Andrew M.; Barrett, Hope R., eds. Proceedings: Spatial analysis and forest pest management. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-175. Radnor, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station: 160-171.
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modified:
13-MAR-2000
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USDA FS SRS
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