Decision-making Regarding Stand-Level Economic Losses from Southern Pine Beetle Epidemics
Investigators:
Thomas P. Holmes,
Southern Research Station
Description:
Data for estimating average rates of southern pine beetle mortality are relatively sparse. The lack of good data is important because imprecise estimates of stochastic mortality rates result in uncertain economic benefits associated with hazard mitigation. In this study, a method is introduced for testing hypotheses regarding economic benefits associated with various levels of southern pine beetle hazard mitigation. Analysis of data for east Texas reveal that: (1) bootstrap estimates of the standard error of average pine beetle-induced mortality are relatively high, and (2) relatively large decreases in average mortality rates are required before statistically significant improvements in economic returns are realized for short-rotation pine plantations. Consequently, it may be difficult to motivate landowners to take steps to reduce pine beetle hazards unless costs are very modest or more precise data are developed regarding the efficacy of hazard mitigation activities.
Problem Area(s):
Decision support systems
Status:
Completed
Products:
Holmes, Thomas P. 1993. Bootstrap confidence intervals for stand-level economic losses from southern pine beetle infestations. In: Brissette, John C., ed. Proceedings of the seventh biennial southern silvicultural research conference; 1992 November 17-19; Mobile, AL. Gen. Tech. Rep. SO-93. New Orleans, LA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Forest Experiment Station: 633-637.
Haight, Robert G.; Holmes, Thomas P. 1991. Stochastic price models and optimal tree cutting: results for loblolly pine. Natural Resource Modeling. 5 (4): 423-443.
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modified:
13-MAR-2000
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USDA FS SRS
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