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Economics Unit

Impacts of Fusiform Rust Research at Stand and Regional Scales

Investigators:

John M. Pye, Southern Research Station
John Eric Wagner, State University of New York (formerly Southern Research Station)
Thomas P. Holmes, Southern Research Station
Frederick W. Cubbage, North Carolina State University (formerly Southern Research Station)

Description:

Fusiform rust is a widespread and damaging disease of loblolly and slash pine in the South. Research has identified families of these pines with improved genetic resistance to the disease, allowing production and planting of resistant seedlings in areas at risk. In this study we compared the amount of money spent by government, university and industry on fusiform rust research with the expected benefits resulting from that research, in particular the benefits of planting seedlings which have been specially selected for genetic resistance to fusiform rust.

We evaluated the benefits from such improved resistance by simulating growth and yield in loblolly and slash plantations established Southwide between 1970 and 2020 either with improved resistance or without such improved resistance. Seedling producers provided the estimates of the improved resistance, quantifying their resistant seedling production and the gains in resistance over the simulation period. Stand-level simulations evaluated the impact of various infection rates on financial yield on low, medium, and high quality sites of each species, taking into account both mortality and product degrade effects of the disease. Two rotation regimes and four levels of infected stem utilization were explored. Stand-level yields were extrapolated to regional values using long-term distributions of plantation conditions from Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys.

Simulation results showed that past investments in fusiform rust research of $49 million will return benefits to plantation owners of between 108 and 999 million constant (1992) dollars, representing benefit:cost ratios of at least 2 to 1 for society's investments in this area of research. Improvements in resistance anticipated over the next several decades will not eliminate all financial damages from the disease; simulation results indicate substantial financial benefits yet remain for additional research and development.

Problem Area(s): Quantitative impacts, Aggregate impacts, Influence of change
Status: completed 1997

Products:

Pye, J.M., J.E. Wagner, T.P. Holmes, and F.W. Cubbage. 1997. Positive returns to investment in fusiform rust research. USDA Forest Service Research Paper SRS-4. Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC. 55 pp.

modified: 13-MAR-2000
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