Publication

The Southern commercial timberland base: changes and projections

Munn, I. A. and D. L. Evans

Timber supply projections play an important role in both public and private arenas. Forest industries utilize timber supply projections as key components in longterm capital investment decisions and corporate planning. Government policies, regulations and legislation concerning public timberlands, landowner assistance programs, and forest taxation are based in large part on the long-term timber supply outlook. A key component of estimating future timber supplies is predicting changes in the land area devoted to timber production. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data recently compiled for the 1992 Resource Planning Act (Powell et al. 1992) provided an opportunity to refine and update current timberland change projections. This study utilized a GIS-based approach to predict gains and losses in the commercial forest land base and identify associated geographic patterns. The seven states in the southern region, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas served as the study area. The study linked plot-level FIA survey data and tract-level Census data using Arc/Info. Empirical models of gains and losses to the commercial forest land base were estimated utilizing the merged plot-level data. Conversions from commercial forest land to agricultural uses were significantly related to site class (+), slope (-), size of the surrounding forest (-) and population density (-). Conversions to urban uses were significantly related to slope size of the surrounding forest (-), distance to urban centers and built-up areas (+), population density (+) and education level (+). Conversions to commercial forest land uses were significantly related to income (-), population density (-), population growth rates (+), education level (+) and distance to urban centers (+).

Fiscal Year: fy98 ·  Problem Area: pa98-1 ·  Theme: cctrgnas ·  Source: extra   <== Explain

Munn, I. A. and D. L. Evans. 1998. Pages 81-88 ERIM International, Inc.,Ann Arbor, MI. Proceedings of the International Conference: Geospatial Information in Agriculture and Forestry. 6/1/1998.

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