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[Images] Five photos of different landscape

Compass issue 10
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Compass is a quarterly publication of the USDA Forest Service's Southern Research Station (SRS). As part of the Nation's largest forestry research organization -- USDA Forest Service Research and Development -- SRS serves 13 Southern States and beyond. The Station's 130 scienists work in more than 20 units located across the region at Federal laboratories, universites, and experimental forests.



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Issue 10

Scenarios and Climate Change Models

Scenarios are possible alternative futures based on certain conditions. For example, what would happen to water supplies in the South if half the present vegetation disappeared? This isn’t likely to happen, but modeling the results of that assumption can help researchers identify possible future trends. Scenarios are not so much forecasts or predictions, but tools to help visualize the influence of certain situations or actions.

Along with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and others, researchers from the SRS Global Climate Change Team run scenarios using two different climate change models—one from the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and the other from Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis.

 

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The Hadley and Canadian models are in agreement on the general types of changes that will take place over the next century. Climate in general will get warmer, heat indices will rise, and precipitation will be more likely to arrive as intense, heavy storms.

But for the Southeast, there are some critical differences between the two models. For example, the Hadley model suggests wetter weather overall for the Southeast, while the Canadian model suggests drier, with widespread droughts that may transform some forested areas into savannas.

Climate models are far from perfect; there are uncertainties that no one can address at this time, such as exactly how future air pollution and carbon dioxide will affect Earth’s energy balances, and how future land covers will interact with the climate systems. This is why scientists use a series of models to cover the potential extremes of climate change.


One type of wildland-urban interface is the isolated interface, where second homes are scattered across remote areas.
Steve McNulty is the leader of the SRS Southern Global Change Team in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Rodney Kindlund, U.S. Forest Service)