Issue 10
Scenarios and Climate Change Models
Scenarios are possible alternative futures based on certain conditions. For example, what would happen to water supplies in the South if half the present vegetation disappeared? This isn’t likely to happen, but modeling the results of that assumption can help researchers identify possible future trends. Scenarios are not so much forecasts or predictions, but tools to help visualize the influence of certain situations or actions.
Along with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and others, researchers from the SRS Global Climate Change Team run scenarios using two different climate change models—one from the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and the other from Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis.
The Hadley and Canadian models are in agreement on the general types of changes that will take place over the next century. Climate in general will get warmer, heat indices will rise, and precipitation will be more likely to arrive as intense, heavy storms.
But for the Southeast, there are some critical differences between the two models. For example, the Hadley model suggests wetter weather overall for the Southeast, while the Canadian model suggests drier, with widespread droughts that may transform some forested areas into savannas.
Climate models are far from perfect; there are uncertainties that no one can address at this time, such as exactly how future air pollution and carbon dioxide will affect Earth’s energy balances, and how future land covers will interact with the climate systems. This is why scientists use a series of models to cover the potential extremes of climate change.
Southern Research Station Headquarters - Asheville, NC
![[Images] Five photos of different landscape [Images] Five photos of different landscape](/images/imstr1.jpg)


